Carter made an impact in the majors down the stretch in 2023 after a strong showing in Double-A, offering an enticing combination of a potential plus hit tool, plus speed, and developing power.
Rangers OF prospect Evan Carter put together an impressive 2023 campaign across three levels spanning Double-A, Triple-A, and the major leagues. The 21 year-old entered the season as a top-50 prospect per MLB Pipeline, Baseball America, and Baseball Prospectus, with the latter two ranking him within the top 30. It was his first season ranked in the top 100 on any of those lists, which came after the 2020 second-round draft pick put together a solid campaign in 2022. He spent most of that year with High-A Hickory, where he hit .287 with 11 homers, 66 RBI, 78 runs scored, and 26 steals, with a well above average wRC+ of 136, across 447 plate appearances. He showed strong command of the plate and an ability to make consistent contact as he walked at a 13% rate and fanned at a 17% clip. There were certainly areas where he could hone his game, of course, as he was caught stealing a dozen times and showed only modest pop.
Carter opened the 2023 season with Double-A Frisco, where his scouting profile – which includes plus power and speed to go with average power – translated statistically. Across 462 PA, the then-20 year-old batted .284 with 12 dingers, 62 RBI, 68 runs scored, and 22 stolen bases, with another above average wRC+ of 133 attesting to his productivity. While his strikeout ticked upward to 22% as he faced higher-end prospect talent, so did his walk rate, which came in at 16%. But there was no major hole in his swing, as his swinging-strike rate came in at 10% - right around average. Still, though, he was inefficient on the basepaths as he was caught stealing 10 times.
On his 21st birthday, Carter was promoted to Triple-A Round Rock. Because of injuries (most notably Adolis Garcia) and slumps (especially Leody Taveras) at the big-league level, Rangers management left him in Triple-A for a little over a week before calling him up to make his big-league debut. During his brief time in Triple-A, Carter hit .353 with no dingers, 3 RBI, 8 runs scored, and 3 stolen bases (in 4 attempts), with a wRC+ of 115, across 39 PA. While it’s tough to glean much of value from such a small sample size, there are small takeaways. The above numbers suggest that certainly wasn’t overmatched as he moved up to the minors, with a 15% strikeout rate, 8% swinging-strike rate, and 10% walk rate confirming that.
And so Carter was promoted to the majors to make his MLB debut on September 8 as Texas pushed to win the AL West. He acquitted himself very well in what was again a small sample size, this time 75 plate appearances as Rangers management did largely “protect” him from lefties. Carter hit .306 with 5 homers, 12 RBI, 15 runs scored, and 3 steals (in 3 attempts!), with a wRC+ of 180. While the average and speed might be hardly surprising given his prospect grades and minor-league track record, the pop was a pleasant surprise given his “average” grade in that department. But Carter made lots of hard contact (41%), which paired well with a 21% liner rate and 36% flyball rate, both of which aligned with his batted ball figures in the minors. But a 36% HR/FB is unsustainable, and his average launch angle of 9 suggests that he’ll really more of a liner/grounder guy rather than a flyball-oriented masher.
While Carter carried his patience and discerning eye over into the majors as he drew walks at an elite 16% clip, he fanned at a 32% clip that far surpassed any figure he posted in that department as a minor leaguer. The culprit wasn’t swinging-and-missing as he logged a reasonable 10% swinging-strike rate and he was extremely disciplined, offering at only 13% of pitches thrown outside the zone (o-swing%). But his contact rate was low (70%), including inside the zone (77% z-contact%). In general, Carter was passive – to a fault as his swing rate was just 34%, and he registered just a 60% swing rate on pitches inside the strike zone. His swing rate was, in fact, the lowest among all MLB players who registered at least 70 PA this past season. Carter’s willingness to wait for his pitch is well documented throughout his professional career, but it’s possible that he was a bit timid in his first taste of big-league action.
So, what should we make of Carter’s brief run in the majors in 2023 as we look ahead to the 2024 season? Again, it’s tough to reliably take too much away from small sample sizes. After all, strikeout rate, for one, doesn’t really normalize until a player logs about 100 PA. So, taken as a whole – his scouting grades, minor-league track record, and abbreviated MLB experience – Carter is an intriguing talent for fantasy. He clearly has a knack for getting on base and, despite what we saw in his overly passive approach at the dish in the majors in 2023, he should make plenty of contact. It was encouraging to see him make so much hard contact after reaching the show, but expecting a repeat of a 36% HR/FB would be foolhardy. And it was also encouraging to see him be a touch more efficient on the basepaths after reaching the majors. Given his tools and work to date, one can see Carter putting together something along the lines of a .270 average, 20 homers, and 25 steals.
Overall, not a bad start to a big-league career for a guy
whose name was unknown to most of the experts when the Rangers made him the 50th
overall pick in the second round of the 2020 draft. Top analysts admitted their
unfamiliarity with him on draft night, noting that he didn’t appear on MLB
Pipeline’s list of the top 200 draft-eligible players nor Baseball America’s list
of the best 500 draft-eligible players. Now ranked as either the #1 or #2
prospect in the Rangers system – either behind or in front of recent draftee Wyatt
Langford depending on the outlet, Carter has likely carved out a place for
himself in the Rangers starting lineup – at least against righties – in 2024. And
that’s exciting given his potential plus hit tool, plus speed, and developing
power.
Photo credit: Hickory Crawdads
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