After a stellar run in 2021-2022 with the White Sox and Giants that saw him become a fantasy ace, Rodon endured a disastrous 2023 campaign that should make him come at a discount on draft day in 2024.
Suffice to say that the 2023 campaign was a huge disappointment – to say the least – for Carlos Rodon and those who owned him in fantasy leagues. He was, after all, coming off of a pair of stellar seasons as he prepared for his first campaign with the Yankees. But his 6.85 ERA only begins to tell the story of how frustrating his season truly was.
After flashing promise at various points since making his big-league debut back in 2015, Rodon finally overcame the injury bug to break out in 2021, his last season with a White Sox club that drafted him #3 overall out of North Carolina State University back in 2014. That year, he posted a 2.37 ERA, 12.6 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, and 3.17 xFIP across 132.2 innings of work (24 starts). His 15% swinging-strike rate, 70% contact rate, and 27.5% hard-hit rate were all career bests. The only blemish on Rodon’s season was left (throwing) shoulder fatigue that limited his innings down the stretch. Otherwise, he was otherworldly as he showed his strongest control to date while severely reducing the amount of contact that opposing hitters made on pitches inside the zone (80% z-contact%).
Rodon entered free agency after the 2021 season and signed a one-year “prove it” deal with San Francisco. Understandably, the White Sox and other clubs were hesitant to commit to signing a guy with a long track record of injuries and had only put together one excellent campaign to date. Well, Rodon largely replicated his success in 2022 as he recorded a 2.88 ERA, 12 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, and a 2.91 xFIP over 178 IP (31 starts). He seemingly laid to rest concerns about whether he could pitch a full season as he topped 30 starts for the first time in his big-league career and did not run into the fatigue issues that slowed him late in 2021.
He continued to throw hard (95.5-mph average heater, the same as in 2021 and higher than his next-highest of 94.5 back in 2016) while again showing solid control and missing lots of bats (14% swinging-strike rate). His contact rate remained low at 72% while opposing batters still struggled to make much hard contact against him (29%). And, again, hitters made contact on pitches inside the zone to the tune of a below-average 81% z-contact%. All of his numbers represented a tiny step back from his 2021 breakout figures, but overall they remained in ace territory. There was little reason to think he couldn’t do it again in 2023 as he moved on from San Francisco. After all, Rodon had now logged over 300 IP of elite pitching over two seasons. He appeared to be legit.
While this writer might not have liked where he ultimately signed – with the Yankees – in advance of the 2023 campaign for fantasy purposes, there was no real reason to expect considerable regression from Rodon. But his age-30 season got off to a rough start as he strained his left (throwing) forearm during spring training before experiencing a setback thanks to back stiffness during his rehab work. As a result, Rodon did not take his season debut for the Yankees until July. He would also miss over two weeks of action in August because of a left hamstring strain. The injury bug, it seemed, was back.
And Rodon’s numbers took a major dip overall when he was on the mound. Across just 14 starts, he logged a 6.85 ERA, 9 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, and 5.30 xFIP across 64.1 IP. Sure the, gap between the ERA and xFIP indicates that luck – especially a 15% HR/FB (11% career) and career-low 61% strand rate – inflated his ERA, but there’s no denying that Rodon’s control and ability to miss bats regressed significantly, with that 3.9 BB/9 his worst since 2019 and his swinging-strike rate dipping to 12.5%, which is still good but not the 14-15% it was in 2021 and 2022. His contact rate jumped to 76% - higher than his 75% career average – as their z-contact% (86%) surpassed his 84% career average. Most problematic, though, was that the opposition recorded a career-worst 38% hard-hit rate against Rodon.
There were, to be sure, stretches where Rodon appeared to be settling in. During a three-game stretch in mid-late September, for instance, he posted a 3.50 ERA, 11.5 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, and 3.55 xFIP across 18 IP. Opposing hitters made hard contact at a 26% rate during that span while his swinging-strike rate was 13%. But then, in his last outing of the campaign, Rodon didn’t record a single out before getting the hook against the Royals, coughing up 8 runs (all earned) on 6 hits and 2 walks while (obviously) recording no punchouts). Out of his 14 starts, he only pitched 6 or more innings three times. He allowed 3 or more runs in eight of those outings. The 5+ runs that he allowed in 4 of those outings matched the number of 5+ run games he recorded over 31 starts in 2022 as a Giant. Despite a few – just a few – bright spots, it was a disastrous campaign for Rodon that already has some comparing his signing with that of Carl Pavano for the Yankees.
But there is hope for Rodon in 2024 and beyond. His run in 2021-2022 was spectacular and hardly surprising given his prospect pedigree. If he is healthy heading into the 2023 campaign, he should absolutely be targeted in fantasy drafts as a buy-low candidate. It’s never a given that a star will bounce back after a rough season, but given the discount at which he should come on draft day, fantasy owners may be able to invest in him as a mid-rotation arm and get much more than that out of him.
Comments
Post a Comment