After a rough start to his big-league career that led to him being demoted in May, Rodriguez appears to have turned a corner since returning to the majors in July.
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This one stings. Expecting Rodriguez to reach the majors early in 2023, I made him one of my keepers entering the season. Although I was disappointed when the 23 year-old righty did make the big-league rotation out of spring training, I held onto him and was seemingly rewarded for my investment of a keeper slot and subsequent patience when news broke that he was getting the call in early April. Following his demotion to Triple-A after a brutal stretch of 10 starts and looking to shore up 2B as I geared up for a playoff run, I dealt Rodriguez for Jose Altuve straight up. Although I still believed in him long term, I was viewed losing out on a possible future fantasy ace as an acceptable tradeoff for a title. Well, after getting bumped from the playoffs in the semifinals, I can now regret losing Rodriguez as I pushed all of my chips to the center of the table in a failed effort to win now. And that’s because he was an entirely different player after he was recalled soon after I dealt him.
Rodriguez entered the 2023 campaign as a top-10 prospect according to MLB Pipeline, Baseball America, and Baseball Prospectus. Armed with an electric fastball and multiple plus secondary offerings, many scouts also scored his command as plus. He might have made his big-league debut in 2022 if it were not for a grade-2 lat strain suffered in early June that sidelined him until September. Even so, his strong performance in Triple-A as a 22 year-old - a 2.20 ERA, 12.5 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 15% swinging-strike rate, and 2.90 xFIP in 69.2 innings of work - suggested that he had the potential to become a fantasy ace, perhaps as early as 2023.
Early reports - from as early as January - indicated that Rodriguez would make the big-league rotation out of spring training. But he began the campaign in Triple-A after scuffling in preseason action, posting a 7.05 ERA and 1.57 ERA across 15.1 IP. His 11.2 K/9 in that sample was encouraging, but a 4.1 BB/9 and 1.8 HR/9 were not. Too many baserunners and too many hard-hit balls. The command and the control seemed off as he racked up high pitch counts, with one difficult inning per outing usually the culprit across those five starts. And so he was sent for further seasoning in the minors, especially with Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells pitching well enough to earn the club's final two rotation spots.
An eight-start stint in Triple-A to open the season yielded mixed results. In 41.1 IP, Rodriguez recorded a 1.96 ERA, 12.2 K/9, and 8% swinging-strike rate - so far so good - but those figures came with a 3.76 xFIP and 4.1 BB/9. The gap between the ERA and xFIP - which suggested that he benefited from some good luck - could be attributed to a low .247 BABIP and high 84% strand rate. The good news was that his HR/9 (0.9) and HR/FB (14%) were both reasonable. And so he got the call to the Show in early April.
His first ten big-league starts did not go particularly well. Across 45.1 IP, Rodriguez recorded a 7.35 ERA, 11.1 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, and 3.93 xFIP. As was the case in the spring, his control and command were issues as he issued a bunch of free passes while surrendering a bunch of homers (2.6 HR/9) - not a good combination. Opposing hitters simply had little trouble squaring up the ball when Rodriguez put the ball in the zone, posting a robust 42% hard-hit rate. On the plus side, the strikeouts were there and the gap between the ERA and xFIP indicated that poor luck in the form of a .372 BABIP and 67% strand rate were inflating his ERA. Even so, it was clear that he needed to work some things out and so in late May Orioles management sent him back to Triple-A for about a month and a half.
Rodriguez simply looked like a different pitcher when he returned after the All-Star break and the numbers bear it out. Across 76.2 innings of work, he logged a 2.58 ERA, 8.6 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, and 3.68 xFIP. He held opposing hitters to a below league-average 34% hard-hit rate while the homers plummeted to just a 0.4 HR/9. He induced a lot more grounders (53%, as compared to 39% before the break). The tradeoff as Rodriguez worked on honing his craft as a pitcher was a downtick in strikeouts as he pounded the zone more and was willing to get outs on soft contact. But the punchouts are already coming back, as he recorded a 7.4 K/9 in July before it ticked upward to 7.9 in August and then finished up at 9.9 in September. Encouragingly, he finished the campaign strong after throwing more innings in the majors after the All-Star break this season (76.2) than he did all of last season in the minors (74.2), posting a 2.17 ERA, 2.2 BB/9, and 3.42 xFIP in 29 September IP.
In short, Rodriguez appeared to turn a corner following his demotion to the minors in late May. His control and command both improved after he returned to the majors, which put fewer runners on base while opposing hitters made less hard contact. The strikeout rate suffered at first, but again spiked again toward the end of the campaign. All told, it was a solid season for a rookie - a 4.35 ERA, 9.5 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, and 3.77 xFIP across 22 starts (122 IP). A 12% swinging-strike rate on the campaign is encouraging, as is a below-average 76% contact rate. To be sure, it was an uneven season, but the highs came when we want to see them - on the back half, not the front. That bodes well for 2024 and beyond.
He should be a strong fantasy play in 2024, although his value on draft day will partly depend on whether fantasy owners take his 2023 numbers at face value or they look at his progression over the season. It's generally a dangerous proposition to disregard a significant chunk of a player's campaign, but when it comes to a highly-touted rookie who struggled at first before figuring some things out, there is some merit in recency bias. In Rodriguez's case, it was a tale of two halves and given his prospect pedigree, minor-league numbers, and advanced metrics, the second half appears to be a foundation for further growth, perhaps into a fantasy ace.
Photo credit: Jeffrey Hayes, CC BY 2.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0>, via Wikimedia Commons
Great piece! He's definitely a talented pitcher with a ton of upside. If he can maintain that contact rate even as opposing batters get familiar with his stuff, he could have a long and prosperous career.
ReplyDeleteThanks, man. Yeah, I think trimming the contact rate is very possible going forward given his ability to miss bats. That plus the improved control that he should down the stretch - and a reduced hard-hit rate - would make him a pretty legitimate fantasy contributor.
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