Relatively unknown in fantasy circles entering the 2023
season, Miller put together a solid campaign in which he displayed good control
after making the jump from Double-A.
Bryce Miller only made his professional debut in 2021 after the Mariners drafted him in the 4th round out of Texas A&M. At age 22, he made a brief run with Low-A Modesto that year, posting a 4.82 ERA, 14.5 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, and 2.74 xFIP in just 9.1 innings of work. It’s a tiny sample size, so it’s difficult to extract much of value from it. But he showed good strikeout ability and fine control while a really unlucky BABIP (.536) and strand rate (59%) inflated his ERA.
The club had him start the 2022 season that that same level, where he made just one start before he moved up to High-A, where he spent most of the year. At that level, he recorded a 3.24 ERA, 11.5 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, and 3.50 xFIP in 77.2 IP. Miller’s control regressed to the average range while the strikeouts remained solid thanks to a healthy 14% swinging-strike rate. A .263 BABIP was a bit on the lucky side, but he otherwise seemed to earn his ERA.
Mariners management moved Miller up to Double-A Arkansas for the rest of the campaign. There, he held his own, although his numbers understandably regressed across the board as he faced more advanced hitters. A 3.20 ERA was nice, but his K/9 dipped to a still-solid 10.8 while his BB/9 worsened to 3.4 and his xFIP came in at 4.40 across his 10 starts (50.2 IP). A .263 BABIP and 6% HR/FB as well as the increased walk rate contributed to the disparity between the ERA and xFIP. Miller’s swinging-strike rate dipped a bit, but still came in at a healthy 13%
His 2022 campaign put Miller on the radar of major prospect outlets. During the 2023 preseason, he came in at #100 for Baseball America and #98 for MLB Pipeline on their lists of baseball’s top 100 prospects. Miller began his age-24 season back in Double-A, where he made four starts in which he recorded a 6.41 ERA, 8.2 K/9, 1.4 BB/9, and 4.53 xFIP over 19.2 IP. His swinging-strike rate dipped to under 12% and, for the first time in his professional career, Miller struggled with the longball as he served up five big flies in those four outings. And yet the Mariners promoted him anyway.
And not to Triple-A, but straight to the majors. Miller dazzled in his big-league debut on May 2nd against the Athletics, allowing just 1 run on 2 hits and no walks while piling up 10 punchouts over 6 IP. He followed that up by surrendering no runs in 3 of his next 4 outings. Some speedbumps followed, of course, but it was a productive rookie campaign overall. Miller posted a 4.32 ERA, 8.2 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, and 4.31 xFIP across 25 starts (131.1 IP). The ERA, xFIP, and strikeout rate might not jump off the page, but the walk rate was stellar, especially for a rookie. The swinging-strike rate wasn’t bad (11.5%), and Miler did get hitters to chase at an above-average 34% rate. The opposition’s contact rate came in a little below average at 78%, as did their hard-hit rate (36%). He did temper the homer issue that plagued him in Double-A to open the campaign, as he posted an 11% HR/FB and 1.23 HR/9 in the bigs. But the combination of an average launch angle of 17.8 to go with an 11% barrel rate and average exit velocity of 91mph isn’t encouraging.
It's worth noting that Miller’s production slumped as the season progressed. Across 59 IP before the All-Star break, he recorded a 3.97 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, and 4.06 xFIP. But in 72.1 IP after the break, he logged a 4.60 ERA, 8 K/9, 1.7 BB/9, and 4.51 xFIP. While Miller benefitted from a lucky strand rate (65%) and BABIP (.244) during the first half, more neutral luck prevailed during the second half (74% strand rate and .322 BABIP). Meanwhile, opposing hitters made about the same amount of hard contact (36% in the first half and 35.5% during the second) as his HR/FB went from 9% to 12% despite his hard hit rate dipping very slightly.
Miller is an interesting arm for fantasy entering the 2024 season. While his 2023 season was a mixed bag as his ERA was whatever while his control was above average and his strikeout rate wasn’t what one would like to see for a starter (at least one K per inning), Miller is still clearly developing as he spent just one full season in the minors and reached the majors with a plus-plus fastball accompanied by a variety of developing secondaries. The 95-mph heater remained his bread-and-butter throughout the 2023 season as he deployed it 66% of the time and it's good enough that it will remain a foundation of his repertoire going forward. But what he does with his 87-mph slider (19%), 81-mph curve (9%), and 85-mph change (6%) will be the keys to whether he can elevate that strikeout rate. The control is already there despite his relative inexperience as a professional, and that’s encouraging. Consider Miller a mid-rotation arm with upside for 2024.
Comments
Post a Comment