2023 Season Recap - Red Sox 1B Triston Casas

Casas started the 2023 campaign very slowly before breaking out during the second half and establishing himself as a middle-of-the-order bat.

Triston Casas broke into multiple top-100 prospect lists back in 2020 before climbing into the top 20 of two major lists – Baseball America and MLB Pipeline – before the 2022 season began. Although his hit tool was suspect, the 6’4”, 250-pounder showed a keen eye at the plate to go with plus-plus power potential. Casas established himself as a prospect to watch in 2019, when he hit .254 with 19 homers, 78 RBI, and a wRC+ of 136 across 493 plate appearances in A-ball as a 19 year-old. He fanned a good bit (24% strikeout rate) but showed an ability to draw walks (12% walk rate). After losing the 2020 season to the pandemic, he spent most of the 2021 season in Double-A, where he was solid but unspectacular, recording a .284 average, 13 dingers, 52 RBI, and a wRC+ of 142 across 329 PA. He improved his strikeout rate to 19% that season while drawing walks at an impressive 15% clip. He then spent most of the 2022 campaign in Triple-A, logging a .273 average 11 homers, 38 RBI, and a wRC+ of 127 across 317 PA. His strikeout rate climbed a little, but was not alarmingly high at 22%, while he again drew free passes at a robust 14% rate. He was promoted to the majors toward the end of the season.

His first taste of big-league action was a mixed bag, in a small sample size of 95 plate appearances. Casas hit just .197 while hitting 5 round trippers and driving in 12 runs, with a wRC+ of 120. His strikeout rate came in at 24% - which was unsurprising given his minor-league track record and hit tool grades – but he also displayed his trademark patience and eye at the plate as he drew walks at a 20% clip. Again, the sample size was very small, but the batted ball profile wasn’t anything great as Casas registered hard contact at a below-average 32% rate while hitting far more grounders than he did in the minors (56% groundball rate), ripping very few liners (8%), and lofting flyballs at a lower-than-usual 36% clip. His contact rate was below average at 75%, although he rarely chased (21% o-swing%) and posted a better-than-average swinging-strike rate of 10%. The command of the dish for a 22 year-old getting his feet wet in the majors, but could he generate enough contact to put his plus raw power to good use?

The 2023 campaign began much the same for Casas as he hit just .225 with 9 homers, 27 RBI, and a below-average wRC+ of 97 across 291 PA before the All-Star break. While his walk rate remained robust at 14%, his strikeout rate climbed to 26% while his hard hit-rate remained a little below average at 35%. The good news was that Casas traded a bunch of his grounders (down to 38%) for liners (up to 20%) and flyballs (42%). But the below-average hard-hit rate kept his HR/FB to a slightly above-average 12% rate. But there were signs that he was turning things around by June, though, as his April was brutal (29% strikeout rate, 27% hard-hit rate, and a wRC+ of 59 across 92 PA), his May was better (28% strikeout rate, 39% hard-hit rate, and a 105 wRC+ over 80 PA), and his June was even better (22% strikeout rate, 41% hard-hit rate, and a 130 wRC+ in 96 PA); he mustered only 3 homers per month during that stretch, though.

Casas really turned it on in July. That month, he hit .348 with 7 dingers, and a wRC+ of 216 across 77 PA. His strikeout rate did tick upward to 25% again, but he continued to walk a lot (14%) while making hard contact at a healthy 40% clip. That month was a springboard to a strong second half of the campaign, as he batted .317 with 15 homers, 38 RBI, and a well above-average wRC+ of 174 in 211 PA. His walk rate remained identical to what it was in the first half of the season (14%), but he trimmed his strikeout rate to 24% while elevating his hard-hit rate to 39%. He also hit even more liners (up to 22%) as well as a few more flyballs (up to 43%). A .365 BABIP after the All-Star break does seem high for him, so an average north of .300 over an entire season seems highly unlikely, especially given his well-documented contact issues. Regardless, it was encouraging to see Casas seemingly break through with a half season in which he hit for more power, trimmed the strikeouts, and continued to walk often.

Overall, Casas finished the 2023 season with a .263 average, 24 homers, 65 RBI, and a wRC+ of 129 across 502 plate appearances. His average exit velocity (per Statcast) came in at a healthy 91mph while a 37% hard-hit rate over the whole season was a significant step forward from the 32% he posted in his brief taste of the majors in 2022. Over a full season, his contact rate again came in at 75% while his swinging-strike rate finished at about the league average at 11%, with a below-average 26% o-swing% attested to his strong discipline at the plate. It’s too bad his season ended two weeks early because of right (throwing) shoulder inflammation that put him on the IL, with Red Sox management opting to not rush him back with the club out of contention for a playoff spot.

In short, Casas’ overall performance in 2023 – especially from July onward – suggests that he could be in for a big 2024 season. His track record suggests that fantasy owners would be wise to expect a decent – but not good – batting average while he has only begun to show his plus-plus power at the big-league level. An average in the .260s to go with 30+ homers would make him a top-10 1B and he should be drafted accordingly.

Photo credit: Portland Sea Dogs, PDM-owner, via Wikimedia Commons