Gimenez predictably disappointed in 2023 after benefiting from a lot of good luck in 2022 despite a subpar contact rate and well below-average hard-hit rate, both of which remained low this past season.
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A bit of hype surrounded Andres Gimenez entering the 2023 season after he seemingly broke through in his first season of full-time MLB action the year before. Across 557 plate appearances in 2022, the then-23 year-old hit a robust .297 with 17 homers, 69 RBI, 66 runs scored, and 20 stolen bases (in 23 attempts), with a well above-average wRC+ of 142.
But a look at his peripherals should raise some eyebrows as Gimenez’s contact rate was below-average at 75% and his hard-hit rate was a paltry 26% while his average exit velocity (88 mph) and barrel rate (6%) were both below average. He chased a lot (41%) and while he made contact with about 66% of the time when he did so, his contact rate on pitches inside the zone (84%) was not good. There was nothing in the batted-ball profile to suggest that a .353 BABIP was repeatable despite his plus speed and liner (21%)-grounder (46%)-oriented approach. All that considered, regression should have been the call entering the 2023 season.
And that’s what happened, as Gimenez hit just .251 with 15 dingers, 62 RBI, 76 runs scored, and 30 steals (in 36 attempts), with a below-average wRC+ of 97 across 616 PA. In his age-24 campaign, Gimenez tempered his strikeout rate to 18% from 20% the year before, but his BABIP tumbled to just .289 as his hard-hit rate remained subpar at 27%. He did improve his contact rate to 77% but chased more often than in 2022 (43%) and made more contact when doing so (69%), which typically does not result in loud contact. His z-contact% ticked upward only slightly to 84%, still below average. Meanwhile, Gimenez’s liner rate dipped to 17% while his flyball rate climbed from 33% to 37%; the result was a lot of soft flyballs, including a 15% infield-fly rate (up from 12% the year before).
Discouragingly, Gimenez showed few signs of turning things around as the season progressed. During the first half of the campaign, he hit .248 with 7 homers, 34 RBI, 40 runs scored, and 15 stolen bases across 306 PA, with a wRC+ of 97. During the second half, he batted .255 with 8 dingers, 28 RBI, 36 runs scored, and 15 steals, with a wRC+ of 98. His strikeout rate ticked upward from 17% before the All-Star break to 20% afterward. On the other hand, he did elevate his hard-hit rate from just 25% before the break to 29% after while his liner rate went from 16% to 19%. He hit a lot of infield flies (17%) during the first half and fewer (12%) during the second.
Gimenez arrived in the majors with the Mets in 2020 as a heralded prospect. He had cracked the top 100 prospect lists of Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus in advance of the 2018 campaign before playing in the Futures Game that season. His prospect rankings peaked during the 2019 preseason, when he came in in the top-40 for both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus while coming in at #58 for MLB Pipeline. All of those outlets cooled on him afterward, though, as he missed Baseball America’s 2020 list while coming in at #84 for MLB and #90 for Baseball Prospectus in 2020. In 2021, he only made Baseball America’s list at #66.
Gimenez’s prospect pedigree largely rested on his excellent defense in the middle infield. His bat, however, drew mixed reviews as he did show promise at the dish as a youngster, reaching Double-A at age 19 and holding his own. Scouts generally rated his contact potential as a plus, but noted that his average would likely remain below-average. His most significant minor-league action before the pandemic interrupted everyone’s developmental processes came in 2019, when he hit .250 with 9 homers, 37 RBI, 54 runs scored, and 28 steals, with a wRC+ of 105 across 479 PA in Double-A. He was just 20, so there was still plenty of room for further development.
Four seasons later, his development appears to have faltered. His power does appear to be average at best while his discipline at the plate bit him in 2023 after he enjoyed a lot of good luck in 2022. Rules changes likely aided his ability to swipe bases, and that was his single biggest asset for those who drafted him in fantasy in 2023.
As a 24 year-old preparing for his third full season of big-league action in 2024, Gimenez can still very well blossom into a .270-20-30 type of player, but his subpar contact rate and well below-average hard-hit rate in both 2022 and 2023 are not encouraging.
Photo credit: Erik Drost, CC BY 2.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0>, via Wikimedia Commons
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