Williams didn’t overwhelm in his first stint in the majors in 2023, but he limited contact – including hard contact – while improving his strikeout rate as the season progressed.
Mild hype accompanied Gavin Williams’ arrival in the majors in 2023. The 6’6”, 250-pound righty was, after all, a first-round draft pick out of East Carolina University in 2021. His stock did dip as bit as a result of a finger injury that limited him to just 3 innings of work in college in 2020, but Williams opted to return for his senior and showcased an impressive four-pitch arsenal with a mid-high 90s heater. Even though he did not make his professional debut until the next season, he appeared on Baseball Prospectus’ 2022 preseason top-100 list at #84.
But Williams had the opportunity to impress during the 2022 season, which he opened with High-A Lake County. Across 9 starts with that affiliate, he compiled a 1.40 ERA, 13.4 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, and 2.43 xFIP. He surrendered no homers while logging a 17% swinging strike rate. So far so good. The organization promoted him to Double-A Akron, where he recorded a 2.31 ERA, 10.5 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, and 4.13 xFIP in 16 starts (70 IP). While the then-22 year-old certainly held his own at that level, his numbers dipped across the board as his swinging-strike rate was still nice at 15% while he did serve up some big flies (1.2 HR/9 and 11% HR/FB).
His overall performance in 2022 vaulted him into the top 100 lists of all major prospect outlets, with Baseball America the most bullish on him with a ranking of #20, Baseball Prospectus not far behind at #26, and MLB Pipeline ranking him at #42. With solid command, a plus heater, a plus slider, a solid curve with plus potential, and a developing changeup, Williams was clearly one of the top arms in all of the minors.
He briefly started the season back in Double-A in 2023, where he posted a 0.63 ERA, 12.6 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, and 2.93 xFIP in 14.1 IP (3 starts). He surrendered no big flies in that small sample size while showing his strongest control to date and logging a 17% swinging-strike rate. Then it was onto Triple-A Columbus, where things were a mixed bag over 9 starts. Across 46 IP, he posted a nice enough 2.93 ERA, 11.9 K/9, and 15% swinging-strike rate, but those came with a career-worst 4.1 BB/9 to go with a 3.97 xFIP. He allowed some – but not an absurd number – of homers as his HR/9 came in at 1.2 and his HR/FB was 16%. A low .247 BABIP and elevated strand rate – 83% - contributed to his lucky 2.93 ERA compared to that 3.97 xFIP. Williams, in fact, recorded a high strand rate at every stop in the minors, with a high of 89% and a low of 83%. So, he may just be one of those guys who inherently strands baserunners at a higher rate. Time will tell.
It wasn’t an amazing run in Triple-A and he clearly still had some further development to do in the minors, but injuries in the big-league rotation pressed Cleveland to call up Williams earlier than anticipated. He made his MLB debut in June and while his first appearance was ho-hum (5.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 4 K against Oakland), he impressed in his second start (7 IP, 0 R, 1 H, 1 BB, 6 K against Kansas City). Overall, he posted a 3.29 ERA, 8.9 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, and 4.53 xFIP across 16 starts (82 IP). Again, he benefitted from a higher strand rate (78%) while his BABIP came in a little low at .270 and his HR/FB was a touch low (for xFIP) at 9%. Advanced metrics like xFIP also simply don’t like the combination of a high walk rate a sub-9 strikeout rate. On the plus side, Williams recorded a solid 12% swinging-strike rate and limited opposing hitters to a 75% contact rate. They also logged a well below-average 28% hard-hit rate.
There were, however, some positive developments for Williams as his first stint in the majors progressed. From August 1 onward, he posted a 3.25 ERA, 10.2 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, and 4.12 xFIP across 9 starts (44.1 IP). While the BB/9 remained where it was during his time in Triple-A and during his first 7 starts in the majors, it was encouraging to see him elevate his strikeout rate significantly after it was just 7.4 across his first 7 starts (37.2 IP). Moreover, he limited hard contact to just a 25% clip during that span (31% during his first 7 starts).
With Williams likely to be a member of the big club’s
starting rotation to start the 2024 campaign, he’s an interesting SP for fantasy
at the right price. There’s definitely upside here – especially if he can apply
the strikeout ability he showed during the second half of the season while
refining his control. The contact rate is already on the right side of average
and he doesn’t surrender much hard contact, so lowering the walk rate – which will
help him to limit damage and pitch deeper into games will be the next step forward.
Comments
Post a Comment