2023 Season Recap - Dodgers SP Bobby Miller

Miller put together a fine rookie campaign as he limited hard contact and free passes, he but could really break out in 2024 if he elevates his strikeout rate.

Despite his prospect pedigree, Bobby Miller was not on the radar of many fantasy owners heading into the 2023 season. After all, he had only made 4 starts in Triple-A in 2022 and therefore seemed destined to spend much of the season getting further seasoning at that level. However, the 29^th overall pick in the 2020 amateur draft out of Louisville got the call to the majors in May and ended up being a solid fantasy contributor. With a heater that averaged 99mph this past season – yes, as a starter – Miller is an intriguing player for fantasy in 2024.

Even though the COVID year deprived Miller of the opportunity to get his feet wet in the minors right after he was drafted, the Dodgers aggressively had the college arm start his professional career in High-A in 2021. There, he impressed, posting a 1.91 ERA, 10.7 K/9, and 2.1 BB/9 across 47 innings of work, although a 3.71 xFIP pointed to a 3% HR/FB and .257 suppressing his ERA. To be fair, his strand rate was on the low side at 69%. For a guy with a rocket for an arm, his swinging-strike rate wasn’t exactly impressive at 11%; that’s good, but not great.

He finished the 2021 season with a trio of starts in Double-A, where in an admittedly small sample size of 9.1 IP, he shined underneath a bloated ERA of 4.82. Miller posted a 13.5 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, and 2.59 xFIP, with a nicer 14% swinging-strike rate. An unlucky .375 BABIP, 69% strand rate, and 17% HR/FB contributed to the gap between the ERA and xFIP. Although it was a tiny sample size, it was good to see Miller ratchet up the strikeouts even as he showed improved control against higher-level talent. His body of work in 2021 vaulted him into the top 60 of the Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, and MLB Pipeline top prospect lists in advance of the 2022 campaign.

Unsurprisingly, though, Dodgers management assigned Miller to Double-A to open the 2022 season, and he remained there for most of the campaign. There were ups and downs there, as he recorded a 4.45 ERA, 11.6 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, and 3.47 xFIP in 91 IP. Again, an unlucky strand rate (63%) inflated his ERA. While the strikeout rate – and his swinging-strike rate (14%) – remained healthy, the significant regression in the walk rate was a concern. The overall trajectory was positive, though, and after Miller was selected to the Futures Game, the Dodgers moved him up to Triple-A.

There, it was mostly more of the same in a sample size of just four starts. Across 21.1 IP, the righty posted a 3.38 ERA, 11.8 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, and a 3.64 xFIP. This time, though, opposing hitters recorded a 27% HR/FB against him, which was a concerning development that they were seemingly having little trouble putting a charge into flyballs. But there’s also a luck factor there as that figure was never higher than 17% before in his minor-league career. Meanwhile, his swinging-strike rate dipped to a still-okay 12%. All told, it was another quality season out of Miller. He clearly possessed some strikeout ability and although his control did regress from 2021, it still wasn’t awful in 2022.

Miller entered the 2023 campaign as a top-30 prospect according to Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, and MLB Pipeline while Fangraphs had him in the top 40. He unsurprisingly opened the season in Triple-A after only briefly visiting that level in 2022. For the first time in his professional career, he truly struggled, albeit over just four starts. Across 14.1 IP, he logged a 5.65 ERA, 7.5 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, and 5.38 xFIP. Again, a small sample size, each of those figures was the worst of his professional career. His swinging-strike rate dipped to an anemic 8%. He did start the season on a rough note health-wise, as shoulder soreness sidelined him during spring training. But his final start in Triple-A was his best as he allowed just 1 run over 6 IP while fanning 6.

And so the Dodgers called Miller up in May as the injury-riddled club (the team transferred Dustin May to the 60-day IL to make room for Miller on the 40-man roster) needed help in the rotation. Miller wasn’t anything amazing before the All-Star break as he recorded a 4.50 ERA, 8.6 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, and 3.97 xFIP in 44 IP. August and September were his best months, though, and he posted a 3.36 ERA, 86 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, and 3.63 xFIP in 80.1 IP after the All-Star break. Although his hard hit rate wasn’t high before the break (32%), he did lower it after (28%). The strikeout rate remained steady from the first half of the campaign to the second, which is disappointing given his average heater (again, 99 mph) and plus 90-mph slider, but it was encouraging to see him slash his walk rate over the course of the season.

Overall, Miller wrapped up his 2023 campaign with a 3.76 ERA, 8.6 K/9, and a 2.3 BB/9, with a 3.75 xFIP suggesting that his luck was neutral. An 11% swinging-strike rate is pretty average, and there’s room for him to grow in that department with his exceptional velocity for a starter and his plus slider. A 76% contact rate is good, as was a 30% hard-hit rate. Miller has already shown plus control in the majors, so all that remains are the strikeouts, and his minor-league track record suggests that those should come.

While he might appear to be little more than a solid mid-rotation arm for fantasy in 2024, there’s definitely top-20 upside here. And there is a very real possibility that he will break out next season.