Although he only spent one full season in the minors, Bibee impressed with a rookie campaign in which he only flashed his strikeout ability while showing improved control as the season progressed.
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Tanner Bibee surprised with a rookie campaign for fantasy owners in 2023 as he recorded a 2.98 ERA, 8.9 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, and 4.22 xFIP across 25 starts (142 IP). The 24 year-old righty simply flew through the Cleveland system after the organization drafted him in the 5th round of the 2021 amateur draft out of California State, Fullerton. But he was a bit unheralded as he went undrafted when first eligible in 2020 and did not make any of the top-100 prospect lists of major outlets prior to 2023.
Bibee made his professional debut in 2022 at the age of 23 in High-A. He only stayed at that level to make 12 starts as he simply dominated, posting a 2.59 ERA, 13.1 K/9, 2 BB/9, and 2.55 xFIP across 59 IP. He did surrender some homers as his HR/9 came in at 1.2 and his HR/FB was 14%, but those numbers aren’t at all outrageous. Besides, Bibee showed good control while missing tons of bats (15% swinging-strike rate).
Cleveland management then promoted Bibee to Double-A, where he also impressed. In 13 starts at that level, he logged a 1.83 ERA, 9.9 K/9, 1.7 BB/9, and 3.67 xFIP. The gap between the ERA and xFIP do indicate that a .257 BABIP, 82% strand rate, and 5% HR/FB suppressed the former, but it was good to see him reign in the longball after serving some up in High-A. While his swinging-strike rate dipped to 14%, it was encouraging to see that figure still come in above average despite him tangling with better talent in Double-A.
On the heels of a very impressive first professional season, he landed in the top 100 for all three major prospect outlets during the 2023 preseason. While Baseball America ranked him as the #86 prospect in all of baseball, MLB Pipeline was more bullish as he came in at #65 on that list while Baseball Prospectus was the highest on him as he was at #52. Scouts gave his mid-90s heater and plus slider above-average marks while some described his change as merely “usable.” His plus command was identified as one of his strengths.
Bibee began the 2023 campaign in Triple-A, but that was a short-lived stay as injuries in Cleveland’s big-league rotation forced the club to call him up for his MLB debut earlier than anticipated. Across just 3 starts with Triple-A Columbus, he posted a 1.76 ERA, 11.2 K/9, 4.7 BB/9, and 4.41 xFIP in 15.1 IP. It was obviously a very small sample size, but Bibee’s control was off while his ERA benefitted from a .235 BABIP, 81% strand rate, and 0% HR/FB. Encouragingly, he continued to miss bats (13% swinging-strike rate).
He was nothing short of solid in his rookie season. Across 25 starts (142 IP), Bibee recorded a 2.98 ERA, 8.9 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, and 4.22 xFIP. The gap between his ERA and xFIP can be largely attributed to the combination of another high strand rate (80%) and an 8% HR/FB. He logged a high strand rate at each stop in the majors – 80-82%, so perhaps he just has a knack for doing that. While his control wasn’t bad, it also wasn’t great. An 11% swinging-strike rate was decent, but, again, not amazing. It was encouraging to see him limit contact in general (76%) and hard contact specifically (30%). While he did not get hitters to chase a ton (28% o-swing%), Bibee especially used a combination of a high heater and lower slider to limit contact inside the zone (83% z-contact%). One of the few blemishes on his quality campaign was that it ended prematurely thanks to right hip inflammation that landed him on the IL in mid-September.
A look at his first and second-half splits offers a bit of insight into his progress over the season in the majors. While Bibee recorded a 3.34 ERA, 9.1 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, and 4.43 xFIP in 70 IP before the All-Star break, he posted a 2.63 ERA, 8.8 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, and 4.03 xFIP across 72 IP after the break. While the strikeouts were down slightly, he slashed his walk rate considerably. Opposing hitters did make more hard contact, though, as he threw more strikes, as his hard-hit rate came in at 26% during the first half and 34% after; that latter figure was still below the league average.
Overall, it was a promising rookie campaign for a guy who
entered the season as a top-100 prospect. While he did not show overwhelming
strikeout stuff in the majors, his minor-league track record suggests that
there might be a bit more to unlock there. He showed his plus command and
control during the second half of the campaign after he issued too many free
passes during the first half. There could be significant regression if his strand
rate dips, so that’s something to keep an eye on. But overall, Bibee should be
a solid mid-rotation arm for fantasy in 2024, with a chance of taking a step forward
as a sophomore entering his age-25 season.
Photo credit: Erik Drost, CC BY 2.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0>, via Wikimedia Commons
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