Although Perez faded during the second half and ended the season on the IL, he flashed his potential to be a fantasy ace as a 20 year-old rookie.
Eury Perez impressed in his first season in the minors at age 18. He began the 2021 campaign in Single-A, where he posted a 1.61 ERA, 13.2 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, and 3.33 xFIP across 15 starts (56 innings of work). The control was a work in progress, but his pure stuff was evident as Perez recorded a stellar 18% swinging-strike rate at that level. He then moved up to High-A, where he was good. Across just 5 starts (22 IP), he logged a 2.86 ERA, 10.6 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, and 4.04 xFIP. A miniscule BABIP of .133 contributed to the gap between the ERA and xFIP, but at this level he ran into some problems with the homer as he posted a 2.1 HR/9 and 19% HR/FB in that small sample size. But again the plus stuff was on display as he recorded a 15.5% swinging-strike rate. All in all, it was a breakout campaign for the 18 year-old that put him around #50 on major prospect lists entering the 2022 season.
A year later, Perez entered the 2023 campaign as a top-15 prospect per MLB Pipeline, Baseball Prospectus, and Baseball America thanks to an even better 2022 season in Double-A as a 19 year-old. Although he lost a month of the season to a right (throwing) shoulder issue, he impressed overall, recording a 4.08 ERA, 12.7 K/9, 3 BB/9, and 3.52 xFIP in 17 starts (75 IP). The youngster recorded an otherworldly 19% swinging-strike rate thanks to an arsenal that includes an upper-90s heater as well as a slider and changeup that both flash plus potential. For his age and size (6’8”, 220 pounds), Perez showed excellent control and command. The effort vaulted him to just outside of the top 10 of major prospect lists, with some scouts contending that he was the single best pitching prospect in baseball, ahead of even Grayson Rodriguez. The combination of pure stuff and command for a kid who only turned 20 in April is simply exciting.
Despite his strong showing in Double-A in 2022, Perez began the 2023 season at that same level. He was, perhaps unsurprisingly, even better as he recorded a 3.19 ERA, 13.3 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, and 2.66 xFIP across 8 starts (36.2 IP) before getting the call to the majors. His swinging-strike rate climbed even higher to 21%, offering a startling metric of just how dominant he was throwing to many hitters older than him. One knock on his showing in that eight-start stint was a tendency to serve up homers, as a 1.2 HR/9 and 18% HR/FB were worse than the 1.1 HR/9 and 12% from a season earlier, but not much. There was therefore some reason to be concerned that he might get hit hard in the majors.
Perez began his big-league career red hot has he posted a 2.36 ERA, 10.3 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, and 3.90 xFIP in 53.1 innings of work before the All-Star break. He limited the baserunners, kept the HR/9 to an acceptable 1.2 (11% HR/FB), and surrendered hard contact at a roughly league-average 37.5% clip. But there were signs that there would be some regression down the stretch, as the gap between his ERA and xFIP pointed to an 89% strand rate in particular suppressing the ERA.
Although Perez raised his K/9 to a stellar 11.1 during 38 IP after the All-Star break, his numbers slipped in other key areas. Among them were a 4.26 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, and 4.71 xFIP. His good luck with stranding baserunners evaporated to a more typical 75% his susceptibility to serving up big flies cropped up in a big way (1.9 HR/9 and 13% HR/FB). Unsurprisingly, loud contact became more of an issue as opposing hitters posted an above-average hard hit rate of 41% against Perez during the second half. Left SI joint inflammation ended his regular season early, but that’s an issue that should be resolved well before spring training 2024.
All told, it was a promising rookie campaign for the 20 year-old flamethrower. Perez finished the 2023 season with a 3.15 ERA, 10.6 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, and 4.24 xFIP over 19 starts (91.1 IP). He recorded an excellent 16% swinging-strike rate while opposing hitters mustered just a 68.5% contact rate against him. They chased pitches outside of the zone at a slightly above-average rate (34% o-swing%) and made contact at a 52% clip when they did, but especially impressive was a well below-average z-contact% of 80% (league average is around 87%) as opposing batters found it difficult to put the bat on the ball on pitches that Perez put inside the strike zone. The 39% hard-hit rate on the year, though, indicates that opposing hitters have relatively little trouble driving the ball when they are fortunate enough to make contact against him, and the combination of that with an average launch angle of 23.5 helps to explain his home run issues in the majors, especially after the All-Star break.
The sky is the limit for Perez in 2024 and beyond. There’s
definitely a tendency to get hit hard and surrender some big flies, but even recent
greats such as Justin Verlander have put together excellent campaigns in which
the only blemish was serving up a few too many longballs. For Perez, his strong
command for a youngster – which should only improve over time – should help to
mitigate the damage, as should his ability to miss bats. In fact, Perez’s track
record with limiting contact and recording ridiculously high swinging-strike
rates – including at the big-league level – is downright impressive and the
foundation for him emerging as a top-25 fantasy arm as early as 2024 and,
eventually, a fantasy ace.
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