Although he’s a proven strikeout machine, Snell’s control was again poor in 2023 even as he benefitted from a lot of good luck and is therefore as regression candidate for 2024.
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Like many, I was enamored with Blake Snell after his AL Cy Young campaign in 2018. That season, the southpaw broke out to post a 1.89 ERA, 11 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, and 3.16 xFIP across 180.2 innings of work. That followed a 2017 season in which he had underwhelmed as a sophomore, recording a 4.04 ERA, 8.3 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, and 4.56 xFIP over 129.1 IP. There was little reason to suspect what followed in 2018 as Snell had shown little improvement from his rookie effort in 2017 to the next season, as his swinging-strike rate remained steady at 11%, his contract rate slightly worsened from 74% to 75%, and opposing hitters recorded slightly more hard contact against him (up to 33% from 31%), although it was encouraging to see him lash his BB/9 down to 4.1 from 5.2 as a rookie. He took a big leap forward in 2019, then, as he registered a 15% swinging-strike rate and 67% contact rate, which mitigated an increase in the hard-hit rate to 36%. Tremendously improved control which manifested in a 3.2 BB/9 – which still isn’t amazing – that was a key to his success that season.
But there were red flags. The gap between the ERA (1.89) and xFIP (3.16) especially pointed to an 88% strand rate suppressing his ERA while a .241 BABIP was also helping out. And that increase in hard-hit rate to roughly a league-average 36% wasn’t a great sign, either. Opposing hitters, moreover, had made hard contact against him at a 41% rate after the All-Star break, which suggested that when they could actually put the bat on the ball, damage could be done. But it wasn’t, as his HR/FB came in at just 9% while his HR/9 was only 0.6 across 61.2 second-half IP. Nevertheless, myself and others in the fantasy community viewed him as an ace, for even if his ERA regressed to, say, 3 or so, he’d still be a top-10 SP for fantasy.
The next few seasons weren’t bad, but they also weren’t amazing for Snell from both a fantasy and real-life standpoint. He had set a very high bar with his Cy Young campaign and so when his luck turned in 2019, the result was disappointing. That year, he logged a 4.29 ERA, 12.4 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, and 3.31 xFIP across 107 IP. His swinging-strike rate climbed to an elite 18% and his contact rate dipped to just 64%, but Snell’s control regressed slightly even as opposing hitters enjoyed some of the luck that they did not the year earlier, as he posted an unfortunate .343 BABIP and 72% strand rate. They also put more balls over the fence, with Snell finishing the season with a 15% HR/FB and 1.2 HR/9. It didn’t help that he missed a chunk of the season with a broken toe suffered while moving a decorative granite piece in his bathroom of all things, as well as because of loose bodies in his left (throwing) elbow. So, although not entirely his fault, his 2019 season pushed some fantasy owners away.
That might have been salvaged by a nice showing in the abbreviated 2020 season when Snell logged a 3.24 ERA, 11.3 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, and 3.06 xFIP across 50 IP. But he did not pitch deep into games as he averaged less than 4.2 IP across his 11 starts, with club management seeming to not trust him to pitch deep into games. Even then, he had some weird peripherals, such as an 89% strand rate despite serving up homers at a career-high 1.8 HR/9 as opposing batters logged a really lucky (for them) 29% HR/FB; his HR/FB has never otherwise come in above 15%. But it was difficult to truly assess that season – as it was for all players – given its abbreviated nature and that players were deprived of a proper spring training, which contributed to some degree to Snell’s brief outings as managers were mindful of workloads.
But before 2021 could serve as a litmus test for Snell, the Rays dealt him to the Padres. Finances were the ostensible reason for moving Snell, who was set to make $11 million that season, for a bunch of prospects headlined by Luis Patino and Franscisco Mejia, but the Rays may have simply been out on Snell, who averaged less than 5 IP per outing during the 2019 and 2020 seasons. At any rate, he underwhelmed in 2021 (4.20 ERA, 11.9 K/, 4.8 BB/9, and 3.74 xFIP across 128.2 IP) before rebounding a bit in 2022 (3.38 ERA, 12 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, and 3.21 xFIP in 128 IP). His 13% swinging-strike rate in 2021 represented his lowest in that department since 2017, but that rebounded to 15% in 2022 – where it was in 2020. Meanwhile, though, continued to not pitch deep into games, averaging 4.2 IP per start in 2021 and 5.1 IP per outing in 2022. Control issues and general inefficiency were definitely parts of the issue there, as Snell’s BB/9 in 2021 was his worst since his rookie effort in 2016 (5.2) and his BB/9 in 2022 was better but still not where it was in 2018-2020.
So, after four years of ups and downs, average control at best and atrocious control at the worst, expectations for Snell were not especially high. ESPN, for instance, ranked him as the #34 overall SP behind the likes of Nick Lodolo, Lance Lynn, and Alek Manoah. And yet he put together a season that has him in the mix to win the NL Cy Young Award, with a 2.25 ERA and 11.7 K/9 across 180 IP – the most he has pitched since 2018 by over 50 innings. But those excellent figures come with a terrible BB/9 of 5 and an xFIP of 3.62 that points to an 87% strand rate and .256 BABIP suppressing his ERA considerably.
Indeed, his 2023 was very reminiscent of 2018, when very lucky strand rate and BABIP figures helped Snell out a ton. A major difference here is a bloated BB/9 that should raise eyebrows. Sure, a 64% contact rate – his lowest since 2019 – and a 15% swinging-strike rate – which has largely been his norm since 2018 – are both excellent. But a 5 BB/9 is simply terrifying for a starter and one can’t expect him to replicate an 87% strand rate that comes in 9% higher than his career average in that department. He has posted a strand rate of 87% or higher in three of his eight big-league seasons, but that figure has been 75% or less in each of the other five. Also consider his work down the stretch in 2023. During the second half of the campaign, Snell recorded a 1.54 ERA, 11.2 K/9, 5.5 BB/9, 3.91 xFIP, .226 BABIP, and 90% strand rate across 82 innings of work. Again, the ERA and K/9 are stellar – but everything else is raises red flags.
So, what to make of Blake Snell’s 2023 season in advance
of 2024 fantasy drafts? Part of the answer to that question depends on what
happens with him during the offseason. He’s set to become a free agent and
reports indicate that a return to San Diego is unlikely. So, part of the
equation when it comes to setting his fantasy value hinges on where he lands.
But regardless of that, the most basic takeaway from the above discussion is
that Snell is a high-risk, high-reward SP for fantasy. Sure, he could replicate
his tremendous success of 2018 and 2023, but the odds are more likely that he’ll
put up numbers more similar to what he did in 2019-2022. Those aren’t at all bad,
but are they #10 fantasy SP numbers? Also, unlike in 2018, we don’t have an
improved BB/9 to hang our hats on after Snell posted a 5 BB/9 that is his worst
since his rookie season. And the odds are long that his ERA will be a pretty
number if he continues to issue lots of free passes even as his strand rate and
BABIP regress to the mean. With all of this in mind, Snell is a #2-3 SP for fantasy,
not an ace.
Photo credit: Keith Allison: Flickr, e-mail, Twitter, Instagram, website, CC BY-SA 2.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0>, via Wikimedia Commons
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