Although Dunning posted a solid ERA in 2023, his strikeout rate reached a career low and his control regressed significantly during the second half of the campaign.
Dane Dunning put together his best overall season as a major leaguer in 2023, posting a 3.70 ERA, 7.3 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, and 4.39 xFIP across 172.2 innings of work. A 2.1 WAR was a career best, as were his BB/9 and ERA. The 28 year-old’s K/9 was, however, a career low while his xFIP was a career high. It’s also worth noting that Dunning spent a chunk of the campaign in the bullpen, as he started 26 games and entered another 9 contests in a relief role.
The gap between his ERA (3.70) and xFIP (4.39) suggests that Dunning benefitted from some good fortune in 2023. Indeed, while it’s not astronomical, a 78% strand rate was easily a career high (previous was 74% in 2022). Metrics such as xFIP, moreover, do not like it when players post low strikeout rates. For the first time in his career, Dunning posted a sub-10 swinging-strike rate while his contact rate came in at a career-high 79%. To his credit, his hard-hit rate came in at 33% - right about his career average – while opposing hitters posted a below-average 7.5% barrel rate and average exit velocity of just under 89mph. On the other hand, his liner rate was up slightly to 21% (his career average was 19% entering the season) while they also hit more flyballs (33% in 2023, 29% before this year).
Dunning’s season splits in 2023 were downright odd. Before the All-Star break, he posted a 2.84 ERA, 5.8 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, and 4.60 xFIP across 92 IP. In 80.2 IP after the break, he recorded a 4.69 ERA, 9 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, and 4.15 xFIP in 92 IP. The strikeout rate was actually useful for fantasy in the second half after being deplorable during the first half, but his control worsened considerably, from good to below average. He also ran into some homer issues in the second half, as his HR/9 jumped from just 0.6 before the break to 1.6 after and his HR/FB climbed from just 6.5% to nearly 18%. That happened despite a major increase in hard-hit rate, as that was 31% before the break but just 32% after.
Dunning’s pitch usage and average velocity were a bit different this year than they were in the past. He threw his cutter a career-high 20% of the time while deploying his fastball a career-low 36% of the time. He otherwise used his slider (23%), change (16%), and curve (5%) about the usual. It was encouraging to see his average fastball velocity rebound to 91mph this past season after it came in at only 89.5 in 2022. But more than ever before the result was a bunch of contact to go with career-low swinging-strike and strikeout rates.
This was Dunning’s third full big-league season, and some trends are not encouraging. For instance, his K/9 has now dipped for the third straight season (not counting his seven-start audition with the White Sox in 2020, when he recorded a 9.3 K/9), from 8.7 in 2021 to 8 in 2022 to just 7.3 this past season. Meanwhile, his xFIP has steadily climbed during that span (partly a reflection of the declining strikeout rate, but also, especially in the case of 2023, reflecting a higher strand rate), from 3.87 in 2021 to 4.03 in 2022 to 4.39 this past season. Meanwhile, his swinging-strike rate has sat right about 10% in each of his full big-league seasons, which is not encouraging. Moreover, opposing hitters have made more and more contact on pitches inside the zone, as his z-contact% was 86.5% in 2021, just over 87% in 2022, and over 88% in 2023. The turnaround in walk rate in 2023 was promising, as that was 3.3 in 2021 and 3.6 in 2022 before coming in at 2.9 in 2023, but (as noted above) that regressed to 3.5 after the All-Star break this season.
Overall, it’s becoming increasingly clear that Dunning is
most likely not going to be a significant fantasy contributor. His 2021 season
hinted that he could be a solid arm, as he compiled a 3.87 xFIP, 8.7 K/9, and
3.3 BB/9 while his ERA was an unlucky 4.51, but he’s regressed in key areas – especially
in the strikeout department – over the past couple of seasons and seems unlikely
to be anything more than a streamer despite his solid ERA in 2023. Don’t be fooled
by that lucky figure on draft day. Although Dunning posted a decent ERA in 2023, his
strikeout rate reached a career low and his control regressed significantly
during the second half of the campaign.
Photo credit: Josh Thompson on Flickr (Original version) 佾珜 (Crop), CC BY-SA 2.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0>, via Wikimedia Commons
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