After a breakout 2022 campaign in which he nevertheless regressed down the stretch, McClanahan never quite seemed right in 2023 before undergoing his second Tommy John surgery.
McClanahan made his big-league debut in his age-24 season back in 2021. He did so after logging just 18.1 IP at the Double-A level and none in Triple-A thanks to the “lost season” that was 2020. Yet, he put together a strong rookie year, posting a 3.43 ERA, 10.3 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, and 3.23 xFIP across 123.1 innings of work. The lefty recorded a stellar 15% swinging-strike rate, limited contact (70%), and kept hard contact to a below-average 34% rate. Although opposing hitters had little trouble making contact with pitches inside the zone (84% z-contact%), McClanahan got them to chase pitches outside of the zone at an above-average rate (35% o-swing%) and they made contact when they did so at a 49% clip. Understandably, the Rays limited his workload in 2021 after he was unable to pitch in any games in 2022, and so McClanahan averaged a shade under 5 IP per start. But there seemed to be a strong foundation in place for a breakout in 2022.
And that’s exactly what happened. Across 28 starts (166.1 IP), McClanahan recorded a 2.54 ERA, 10.5 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, and 2.60 xFIP. His swinging-strike rate ticked up to 15.5% while opposing hitters logged a contact rate just under 69% against him. Evan as his o-swing% remained healthy at 35%, opposing hitters posted a below-average sub-80% z-contact rate against him as they made less contact on pitches inside the zone. Meanwhile, the opposition registered a hard-contact rate of just 28% against McClanahan, partly because they recorded a 52% contact rate when they chased pitches outside of the zone (o-contact%). Those developments along with improved control were keys to his step forward in 2022. And with his improved performance on the mound and because he was coming off of a career-high 123.1 IP in 2022, Rays management allowed him to pitch deeper into games in 2022 as McClanahan averaged almost 6 IP per outing.
It's worth noting, though, that McClanahan did fade during the second half of the 2022 season. In 110.2 first-half IP, he recorded a stellar 1.71 ERA, 12 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, and 1.99 xFIP. But after the break, he trudged to a 4.20 ERA, 7.6 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, and 3.81 xFIP in 55.2 IP. The slide began in August before a shoulder impingement put him on the IL at the end of that month. McClanahan was not himself after he returned in September. In 19 IP that month, he posted a 5.21 ERA, 5.7 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, and 5.14 xFIP. Although a resounding success on the surface, the 2022 season was a tale of two halves for McClanahan and that should have raised some red flags as the 2023 fantasy campaign approached.
While his 2023 season was far from a disaster, McClanahan just never seemed quite right before landing on the IL for the second and final time of the campaign. In 21 starts, the lefty posted a 3.29 ERA, 9.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, and 3.85 xFIP. The strikeout rate was down a full K per 9 innings from 2023 while his BB/9 was more than full free pass higher per 9. Although opposing hitters still whiffed a ton against him (15.5% swinging-strike rate) and struggled to make much contact (69% contact rate) as they continued to chase (35% o-swing%) and not make a lot of contact on pitches offered at inside the zone (80% z-contact%), they posed a career-high 36% hard-hit rate against him, which is roughly league average. Combine that with a career-high average launch angle of 11 (was 8.5 his first two seasons) and that’s not good, especially when McClanhan’s walk rate was up to a career-worst 3.2 BB/9. Some of his issues might be attributed to a back issue that put him on the IL during the first half of July and the major forearm-turned-elbow issue that ultimately cost him the rest of the season as he had to go under the knife.
But a look at his performance on a month-by-month basis suggests that he was never quite himself before those injuries cropped up. Although he posted some nice numbers in April (2.12 ERA and 11.1 K/9 in 34 IP) and May (2.02 ERA and 10.1 K/9 over 35.2 IP), his BB/9 came in at 3.7 in April and 3.3 in May while his xFIP wasn’t so pretty in either month (3.38 and 3.87, respectively). Things turned south in June as McClanahan posted a 3.76 ERA, 6.5 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, and 4.52 xFIP across 26.1 IP. After he returned from the IL in July, it was a mixed bag in a small sample size: a 7.11 ERA, 9.5 K/9, 1.4 BB/9, 3.54 xFIP, and 40% hard-hit rate in 19 IP (after his hard-hit rate was 34% during the first half). The improved control was a good sign, but opposing hitters had little trouble squaring up the ball against him, especially as they logged an 18% HR/FB and 1.9 HR/9 (13% and 1.1 career, respectively).
Obviously, fantasy owners can expect nothing from
McClanahan in 2024 as he will spend the season rehabbing from his second Tommy
John surgery. That leaves us to wonder about 2025 after a breakout – but uneven
– 2022 season and a bumpy 2023 in which he regressed in some key areas (especially
control and hard contact). Nathan Eovaldi and Jameson Taillon represent recent
examples of starters who returned from a second TJS to put together productive
seasons, but the examples of success stores are fewer than those who bounced back
from just one round of the procedure. Now, McClanahan joins Jacob deGrom,
Walker Buehler, Dustin May, and Chris Paddack, who are all working their way
back from a second TJS of their own. One can’t definitively say whether
McClanahan will come back strong from the procedure, but from a pure production
standpoint there’s reason for concern based on the second half of the 2022 campaign
and, well, all of the most recent one.
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