Steer surprisingly put together a productive rookie season in 2023, but a subpar hard-hit rate and some regression after the All-Star break are concerning.
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The productive fantasy season that Steer put together in 2023 was a pleasant surprise given his lack of prospect pedigree and hype. Although he made the 2022 Futures Game when he was still in the Minnesota system, he never appeared on the MLB Pipeline, Baseball America, or Baseball Prospectus top-100 prospect lists. Steer did appear on the Fangraphs top-100 list entering the 2023 campaign, though, coming in at #47 because of his offensive potential. It appears that his lack of an obvious defensive home as he played around the infield and that his hit tool was his only plus asset limited his upside in the eyes of most evaluators.
The Twins drafted Steer in the third round of the 2019 draft out of the University of Oregon. He showed some contact ability in his first taste of minor-league action in Rookie and A-ball that season, hitting .325 across 95 plate appearances in Rookie ball before batting .260 in 201 Single-A PA. Steer did draw some walks (16% BB% in Rookie and 10% in Single-A) and didn’t strike out much (5% and 14%, respectively) as he rarely whiffed (4% and 8% swinging-strike rates, respectively) but he also didn’t hit for much power as he produced a total of 4 big flies, two at each level. He did also go 5-6 in stolen base opportunities.
With formal games wiped out in 2020 thanks to the pandemic, Minnesota assigned Steer to High-A to open the 2021 campaign. He played well there, batting .274 with 10 homers, 24 RBI, 37 runs scored, and 4 steals across 208 plate appearances, with a wRC+ of 151 attesting to his productivity. He commanded the plate very well, walking (17%) more often than he fanned (15%) and he again didn’t swing-and-miss often (8%). The increased power output – an ISO of .232 after that figure came in at just .182 and .127 in his two minor-league stops back in 2019 – was an encouraging development. So, the Twins advanced Steer to Double-A, where his average slumped but he maintained his power (.229 ISO). Across 280 PA at that level in 2021, he batted .241 with 14 dingers, 42 RBI, 45 runs scored, and 4 more stolen bases (finishing 8-12 on the year in steal attempts). His wRC+ came in just under average for the level at 99 as his average dipped, thanks in large part to a 26% strikeout rate fueled by a 12% swinging-strike rate. His walk rate also came in at just 7%.
Understandably, then, Twins management had him begin the 2022 season in Double-A ball. In a sample size of 156 PA, the 24 year-old showed considerable improvement as he hit .307 with 8 homers, 30 RBI, and 27 runs scored, with a wRC+ of 143. He tempered his strikeout rate to 15% as his swinging-strike rate fell to under 10%. Steer’s .285 ISO represented an increase in the power department. And so the organization moved him up to Triple-A St. Paul. There, his average again dipped to .242, but he hit 12 dingers with 32 RBI and 39 runs scored, with a wRC+ of 117. Steer’s strikeout rate ticked upward to a still-reasonable 19% - even though his swinging-strike rate dipped to under 9% - while he drew more walks (12%). A .242 ISO was good to see at the highest level of the minors for a guy viewed as a contact-first player.
And then Minnesota dealt Steer to Cincinnati as part of the Tyler Mahle deal at the trade deadline. Steer logged just 104 PA with Triple-A Louisville, batting .293 with 3 homers, 14 runs scored, and 14 RBI, with a wRC+ of 126. It was a small sample size, but his strikeout rate climbed to 22% - even though his swinging-strike rate fell to under 8% - and his walk rate dipped to under 9% while his ISO tumbled to .174. He went 1-1 on in stolen base attempts with Triple-A Louisville to finish his minor-league season an unimpressive 4-7 in steal attempts.
As the calendar turned to September, the Reds brought Steer up for a cup of coffee. In his first taste of big-league action, Steer hit .211 with 2 homers, 8 RBI, and 12 runs scored across 108 PA, with a wRC+ of 78. While he drew free passes at a solid 10% clip, he struck out at a 24% rate even though his swinging-strike rate came in under 9%. A 79% contact rate wasn’t bad at all either, but the quality of contact was wanting as Steer posted a hard-hit rate of just 22%. An average launch angle of 13.6 was promising from a liner/flyball standpoint, but a 6% barrel rate was not. Ultimately, it was again a small sample size that didn’t tell us a ton, especially for a guy making his big-league debut. Prospect development is, after all, not linear, and Steer had started slowly – at least in the average department – in both Double-A and Triple-A.
Steer made the Reds roster out of spring training in 2023, ultimately playing all around the field to pick up fantasy eligibility at 1B, 2B, 3B, and OF. With his defensive home a question mark as he played all around the infield in the minors, Steer’s ability to (mediocrely) man multiple positions – which now includes the corner outfield spots – as a fantasy asset that offers fantasy owners roster versatility. He delivered with his bat over the course across 665 PA, hitting .271 with 23 dingers, 86 RBI, 74 runs scored, and a surprise 15 stolen bases (in 18 attempts), with an above-average wRC+ of 118. While he again walked at a solid 10% rate, he trimmed his strikeout rate to a more reasonable 20% (even though his swinging-strike rate ticked up to 9.5%) while his 78% contact rate came in at almost average at 78%. Steer’s 28% chase rate (o-swing%) attested to his discipline at the dish while he did a solid job of making contact on pitches inside the zone (85%). However, his hard-hit rate came in at only 32% - below league average – while his barrel rate was also unimpressive at under 7%.
That’s a pretty good season overall for a rookie, but fantasy owners should tap the brakes a little before getting too excited to draft him in 2024. Steer enjoyed a strong first half of the 2023 campaign, batting .277 with 14 homers, 51 RBI, 45 runs scored, and 9 stolen bases in 11 attempts across 376 PA, with a wRC+ of 124. He walked at an 11% rate and struck out at a 19% clip while registering a 34% hard-hit rate. But after the All-Star break, he hit .265 with 9 dingers, 35 RBI, 29 runs scored, and 6 steals in 7 attempts across 289 PA, with a wRC+ of 110. His walk rate dipped to 9% while his strikeout rate climbed to 24% and his hard-hit rate fell to under 30%. It was by no means a terrible second half, but his production fell across the board, with a wRC+ decline from 124 to 110 attesting to that. His power also dipped as his ISO went from .200 to .183.
So, what to make of Steer for fantasy in 2024? He should be a solid if unspectacular fantasy contributor. Given his ability to consistently make contact, a decent average should be expected. The stolen base total was a pleasant surprise, but was probably helped by MLB’s changes before the season that inflated stolen bases in general. The big question. Is he more of a 25+ homer guy as his first half suggested, or more of a 20- dinger guy as his second half suggested? As a prospect, Steer was always described as an average-power type, and his hard-hit rates so far in the majors seem to bear that out. There’s certainly value in a guy who can hit .270+ with 20+ homers, especially if he has significant position flexibility, but don’t overpay for that on draft day. Especially if the player trended downward rather than upward in many key metrics during the most recent season – which was the case with Steer in 2023.
Photo credit: U.S. Air Force photo by R.J. Oriez, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons
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