2023 Season Recap - Reds SP Hunter Greene

Greene’s overall numbers in his sophomore season might not be encouraging, but he showed some improvement from his rookie campaign before a hip issue seemed to derail his progress.

Hunter Greene’s arrival in the majors in 2022 was accompanied by considerable hype. The hard-throwing righty had, after all, been the second overall pick out of high school back in 2017. He had been a mainstay on the major prospect lists since 2018 while he appeared in the Futures Game that season. Entering the 2022 campaign, he was ranked as the #35 prospect in the minors by Baseball America, #22 by MLB Pipeline, and #32 by baseball prospectus. He had regularly posted a high strikeout rate in the minors and had mostly kept the ball in the park, although his control remained shaky. But his high-octane arm was exciting from a fantasy perspective.

Greene proceeded to put together a solid rookie campaign as he compiled a 4.44 ERA, 11.8 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, and 3.64 xFIP across 24 starts (125.2 innings of work). A 16% HR/FB was one of the contributors to the gap between the ERA and xFIP as Greene surrendered a lot of homers (1.72 HR/9) despite not allowing a ton of hard contact (32% hard-hit rate). He did a great job of missing bats (14.5% swinging-strike rate) and limiting contact in general (70% contact rate). While he got hitters to chase at about the league average (32%), they struggled to make contact on pitches inside the zone (80% z-contact%).

He was essentially a two-pitch pitcher, as he heavily deployed his 99-mph average heater 54% of the time and his 88-mph slider 41% of the time while only sprinkling in his 90-mph change 5% of the time. He was clearly trying to overpower big-league pitchers with his plus fastball-slider combo, and it mostly worked. But he issued too many free passes, which was problematic in combination with his susceptibility to the longball. Greene also missed about a month and a half of action in the later part of the season because of a right shoulder strain, but returned before season’s end and was healthy heading into the 2023 campaign.

Greene was understandably a hot name in fantasy drafts in advance of the 2023 season. Despite some homer and walk issues, he had shown considerable promise in his rookie campaign. Then he proceeded to do a lot more of the same in 2023. Across 22 starts (112 IP), he recorded a 4.82 ERA, 12.2 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, and 4.00 xFIP. Again, he served up too many homers (1.53 HR/9) as his HR/FB remained on the high side at 14% but did come down from the previous season’s figure slightly. While it was nice to see the strikeout rate tick upward, the worse walk rate is concerning. While his hard-hit rate remained below average, it did climb from his rookie campaign to 35% while opposing hitters also made a bit more contact in general (72.5%). His swinging-strike rate was nice again, but did dip to 13.5%. Opposing hitters did chase a little more often (33.5%), but they made a little more contact on pitches inside the zone (82% z-contact%).

His pitch offerings remained essentially the same as in 2022, as he threw his heater about 54% of the time, his slider 40% of the time, and his change 5% of the time. Again, he was basically a two-pitch guy again, and opposing batters fared better against him overall. While he surrendered homers at a lower rate in 2023, the regression in the control department during a pitcher’s sophomore campaign shouldn’t be ignored. Oh, and he missed over two months of action because of hip pain.

Also consider that he was better before the injury sidelined him than he was afterward. In 73.1 IP before the injury, Greene posted a 3.93 ERA, 12.3 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, and 3.86 xFIP. In 38.2 IP after he returned, he logged a 6.52 ERA, 12.1 K/9, 4 BB/9, and 4.20 xFIP. Virtually everything worsened, including his hard-hit rate, which jumped from 32% before the injury to 38% afterward. Unsurprisingly, then, his HR/FB jumped from 10.5% before the IL trip to 21% after, with his HR/9 jumping from an acceptable 1.1 to an ugly 2.3.

Ultimately, it’s tough to gauge Greene’s season numbers as he clearly wasn’t the same pitcher after the hip issue sidelined him. Before that happened, his control wasn’t great, but his strikeout rate was up and he had reigned in the homer problem. Given his prospect pedigree and the likelihood that his 2023 injury derailed a season that would have likely otherwise yielded a better stat line than he compiled in 2022, one shouldn’t discount Greene too much entering the 2024 fantasy draft season. He’s still just 24 and during the first half of the 2023 season he did show improvement in one of the key areas in which he struggled the year before. This might actually be a good opportunity to draft him at a discount as his ERA wasn’t pretty.

Photo credit: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c4/Hunter_Greene_%2851253493007%29.jpg