2023 Season Recap - Tigers OF Kerry Carpenter

Despite missing over a month of action with a shoulder sprain, Carpenter put together a productive 2023 campaign in which he showed an ability to hit for power and at least a decent average.

Kerry Carpenter offered surprising production in 2023 despite arriving in the majors as an unheralded prospect. When he first reached the majors in 2022 – his age-24 season – he had never cracked any of the major top-100 prospect lists. Nevertheless, he put together a strong season in his first extended look in the majors in 2023, recording a .278 average, 20 homers, 64 RBI, 57 runs scored, and 6 stolen bases (in 6 attempts) across 459 plate appearances, with an above-average wRC+ of 121.

A 19^th-round draft pick back in 2019, Carpenter played collegiate ball at Virginia Tech, where he was solid but unspectacular as he flashed some power potential. He made his professional debut in Rookie ball later that year, posting a .319 average, 9 dingers, 34 RBI, 33 runs scored, and 6 stolen bases across 191 PA, with a stellar wRC+ of 184. Carpenter showed excellent command of the dish as he walked (11.5%) more often than he struck out (9.5%). In the waning days of the season, he was promoted to Low-A, where he hit .167 with no homers, 1 RBI, 1 run scored, and a steal in just 18 PA; although he drew no free passes in that tiny sample size, he fanned at only a 17% clip.

After the pandemic forestalled minor-league competition in 2020, Carpenter began the 2021 campaign with Double-A Erie. There, he understandably did not impress after a lost campaign and jumping multiple levels. But he held his own, batting .262 with 15 dingers, 74 RBI, 57 runs scored, and 5 stolen bases in 461 PA, with a slightly above-average wRC+ of 102. His strikeout rate, meanwhile, climbed to 20% while his walk rate came in at a below-average 6%. Encouragingly, Carpenter’s swinging-strike rate remained about average at under 11%.

Since he largely spent the 2021 season trying to get his feet back underneath him and clearly did not master the Double-A level as a result, Tigers management had him repeat the level to begin the 2022 season. This time, he showed some development in key areas, particularly in the power department. Across just 262 PA, Carpenter hit .304 with 22 homers, 48 RBI, 43 runs scored, and a stolen base, with a well above-average wRC+ of 164. The average was doubtlessly lucky thanks to a .347 BABIP that seems unsustainable for a guy with modest speed and a power-oriented approach as well as a 28% strikeout rate as his swinging-strike climbed to over 12%. Meanwhile, Carpenter’s walk rate remained below average at 6%. While the power outbreak was encouraging, there was reason to be skeptical about repeating anything near that level given a very high 31% HR/FB.

But based on his production, the Tigers promoted Carpenter to Triple-A partway through the season. There, he was even more impressive, as he hit .331 with 8 dingers, 27 RBI, 17 runs scored, and 2 stolen bases across 138 PA, with a wRC+ of 176. Encouragingly, he continued to hit for power even as he lowered his strikeout rate to just 12%. Meanwhile, he elevated his walk rate to 12%, showing a refined eye at the plate in competitive action that he hadn’t since 2019. The average rode on a more reasonable .330 BABIP, the big flies still came despite his HR/FB dropping to a more reasonable 19%, and his strikeout rate came in at under 8%. Especially considering the state of Detroit’s lineup at the big-league level, it was hardly surprising that the club called up the hot slugger for a cup of coffee.

Carpenter didn’t overwhelm in his first taste of big-league action. Across 113 PA, he hit .252 with 6 dingers, 10 RBI, and 16 runs scored, with a wRC+ of 124. The strikeouts returned as he fanned at a 28% clip and recorded a 14% swinging-strike rate while his walk rate tumbled to just 5% in that sample. Carpenter’s contact rate was below average at 74% while his hard-hit rate was unimpressive at 33%. Encouragingly, though, his average launch angle (14.5) and barrel rate (11%) indicated that he should offer some power output at the major-league level.

He broke camp with the Tigers to open the 2023 season, but ended up on the IL in late April after spraining his shoulder while colliding with an outfield wall and ended up missing over a month of action. Even so, his season was a productive one, as he logged a .278 average, 20 homers, 64 RBI, 57 runs scored, and went 6-6 in stolen base attempts across 459 PA, with a wRC+ of 121. He did trim the strikeout rate to 25% while raising his walk rate to 7%, although neither figure is a good one. Encouragingly, Carpenter elevated his hard-hit rate to 36% in his second run in the majors while raising his contact rate to 7% and cutting his swinging-strike rate to 12%. Overall, there was improvement in key areas that boded well for both the average and power output.

A look at his splits shows some growth over the course of the 2023 campaign, as Carpenter hit .261 with 8 homers, 21 RBI, and 18 runs scored across 153 PA with a wRC+ of 116 before the All-Star break. After the break, he batted .287 with 12 dingers, 43 RBI, 39 runs scored, and a wRC+ of 124 in 265 PA. His strikeout rate did remain steady at 25% from the first half to the second half of the season, but he did slightly raise his walk rate (from 6% to over 7%) while generating more hard contact (up to 37% from 34%). A .359 BABIP did boost his average during the second half, and that sort of figure doesn’t seem like it should be the norm for Carpenter.

Overall, it looks like Carpenter could be a solid #3 OF for fantasy in 2024. He does strike out a decent bit, but should offer an average that doesn’t hurt to go along with 25+ homers, with 30 possible given his track record. The combination of a 10% barrel rate and 13.1 average launch angle in 2023 were decent, and Statcast did show a promising hard-hit rate of 43%. For the right price, he should be a solid fantasy contributor in 2024.

Photo credit: Minda Haas Kuhlmann, CC BY 2.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0>, via Wikimedia Commons