After showing potential in his first three seasons in the majors, Skubal impressed in 2023 as he rebounded from flexor tendon surgery to pile up strikeouts, limit minimize passes, and limit hard contact.
Although he was seemingly forgotten by fantasy owners as he began the 2023 campaign on the IL as he recovered from flexor tendon surgery on his left (throwing) arm, Tigers southpaw Tarik Skubal ultimately put together a stellar season as he recorded a 2.80 ERA, 11.4 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, and 2.57 xFIP across 15 starts (80.1 innings of work) after making his season debut in July. Across the board, it was his strongest showing in the majors since he made his debut back in 2020, as all of those figures were career bests, as were Skubal’s 71 % contact rate, 27% hard-hit rate allowed, and 16.3% swinging-strike rate. He’s therefore an exciting arm for fantasy in 2024 despite his humble roots as a prospect.
Skubal was originally drafted back in 2017. The Diamondbacks selected him in the 29th round out of Seattle University even though he was recovering from Tommy John surgery. Wanting to improve his draft stock, he opted not sign and returned to college. While Skubal’s 2018 campaign with Seattle University yielded mixed results, he promising raw stuff was apparent and so the Tigers drafted him in the 9th round of that year’s amateur draft.
He was more of a thrower than a pitcher at that point in his career, but soon showed progress in the minors. Skubal showed excellent strikeout ability and good control in his first taste of the minors late in 2018 as he finished the campaign in Single-A. A 22.1-IP sample size across three levels – which included only one start in 9 appearances – doesn’t offer much of value, though, so 2019 offered the first meaningful look into what Skubal could do as a professional.
Skubal began the 2019 season in High-A, where he posted a 2.58 ERA, 10.9 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, and 2.59 xFIP across 80.1 IP (15 starts). He recorded an excellent 16% swinging-strike rate while limiting the free passes and homers (0.6 HR/9), an encouraging combination for a young pitcher. With little more to prove at that level of the minors, Tigers management promoted him to Double-A, where he was in most ways even more impressive. Across 42.1 IP (9 starts), Skubal logged a 2.13 ERA, 17.4 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, and 1.27 xFIP. The regression in the control department was concerning, but the ability to miss bats as he posted an otherworldly 22% swinging-strike rate as a starter against stiffer competition was incredible. Encouragingly, he also kept the homers in check (0.4 HR/9).
Unsurprisingly, then, Skubal cracked all three major prospect rankings lists before the 2020 campaign, coming in at #34 for Baseball America, #46 for MLB Pipeline, and #76 for Baseball Prospectus. With the 2020 minor-league season lost to the pandemic, Skubal skipped Triple-A and made his big-league debut that year. It was a mixed bag, as he finished the abbreviated campaign with a 5.63 ERA, 10.4 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, and 4.81 xFIP in 32 IP (7 starts, 1 relief appearance). His control did not help him as he surrendered homers at a very high rate (2.5 HR/9), although his contact rate wasn’t bad at 74% and his swinging-strike rate was solid at 13%. The opposition didn’t exactly make a ton of hard contact against him (32%), but they mostly hit flyballs (52%) and logged a lucky 20% HR/FB against him (xFIP normalizes HR/FB at 10%). In the wake of that campaign, he actually climbed to the #20 overall prospect for Baseball America and reached #24 for MLB Pipeline, but almost tumbled out of the top 100 for Baseball Prospectus (#99).
Skubal broke camp a member of the Tigers rotation in 2021 and, while the longball remained an issue, he fared better overall than he did in 2020. Across 149.1 innings of work (29 starts and 2 relief appearances), he logged a 4.34 ERA, 9.9 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, and 4.06 xFIP. The lefty still surrendered a bunch of homers (2.1 HR/9) and his HR/FB ticked upward to 21%, which could fairly make one wonder whether – despite not serving up many round trippers in the minors – he might just be homer prone. Concerningly, his hard-hit rate spiked to an above-average 38% in 2021 while his contact rate also climbed – but remained below average – to nearly 77%. His swinging-strike rate also dipped down to nearly 11%. Opposing hitters chased his stuff outside of the zone less often (his o-swing% was above average at 34% in 2020 but below-average at 30% in 2021) while they made more contact on pitches inside the zone (z-contact% was up to over 83% from under 82%). On the plus side of things, it was encouraging to see him trim his walk rate. But Skubal was clearly still figuring out the big-league level.
He seemed to turn a corner in 2022 before being sidelined in August with what was initially described as left arm fatigue but eventually culminated in the aforementioned flexor tendon surgery. In 117.2 IP (21 starts), Skubal posted a 3.52 ERA, 9 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, and 3.40 xFIP. Even as he improved his control, he reigned in the longball, posting a HR/9 of just 0.7 and a HR/FB of just under 8%. Even as he surrendered a hard-contact rate of just 29% to opposing hitters, for the third straight year he raised his groundball rate, from 28% in his debut in 2020 to 39% in 2021 to 46% in 2022. His contact rate, meanwhile, remained at 77%, although his swinging-strike rate rebounded slightly to almost 12%. Opposing hitters chased pitches outside of the zone more often again (34% o-swing%) and made contact with those pitches at a 61% clip that was lower than his 64% in 2020 and 63% in 2021. But they also had little trouble making contact on pitches inside the zone, posting an 87% z-contact rate against him. Overall, it appeared that Skubal was working on honing the art of pitching, as evidenced by his improved control and reduced hard contact rate at the expense of strikeouts.
After returning from the IL halfway through the 2023 campaign, Skubal put together his best body of work as a major leaguer in his age-26 season. In addition to recording the above-mentioned career bests (2.80 ERA, 11.4 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 2.57 xFIP, 71% contact rate, 27% hard-hit rate, and 16.3% swinging-strike rate), the southpaw got hitters to chase at a career-high 36% clip, slashed their z-contact to 81%, recorded a career-low 55% o-contact%, and posted a career-low 0.5 HR/FB as well as a career-low 7% HR/FB. His average fastball velocity came in at nearly 96 mph in 2023, up about a tick and a half from what he averaged in 2020-2022. For the third straight campaign his groundball rate climbed, this time to 52%. A key to his success may have been his career-high 24% usage rate for his change-up, a pitch that made up only about 15% of his offerings in 2020-2022.
It is difficult to not be high on Skubal as the 2024 fantasy baseball season approaches. In 2023, he simply put it all together – more strikeouts, less walks, and less hard contact. He had shown an ability to do all three of those things across his professional career, but hadn’t done all three over an extended period. Whether he can do so across a full season remains to be seen, but his stock is definitely up.
Photo credit: Erie SeaWolves
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