After his control was his biggest flaw throughout his professional career, Steele put together a breakout campaign in 2023 as he drastically slashed his walk rate while maintaining a solid (but not great) strikeout rate.
Justin Steele seemingly came out of nowhere to be a useful arm in fantasy (and real) baseball in 2022 before breaking out in 2023. The Cubs drafted the 28 year-old southpaw out of a Mississippi high school in 5th round of the 2014 June amateur draft at pick 139 overall. During his long minor-league career, Steele never cracked any of the major top 100 prospect lists as he largely struggled with walks while his strikeout stuff was up and down. As a case in point, in High-A in 2017, he posted a 2.92 ERA, 7.5 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, and 4.06 xFIP across 20 starts (98.2 innings of work), with a 10% swinging-strike rate. He logged just 46.2 IP in 2018 and 38.2 IP in 2019 because of injuries, most notably as he recovered from Tommy John surgery that cut short his 2017 campaign.
After the “lost” 2020 season, Steele began the 2021
campaign in Triple-A, where he posted a 1.32 ERA and 9.6 K/9 across 38.2 IP,
but those figures came with a 4.3 BB/9 and 4.14 xFIP. He did record a promising
14% swinging-strike rate. After arrived in the majors later that year, Steele
made 5 starts and 4 relief appearances. Across just 27.1 IP, he largely replicated
his work from the minors as he posted a 4.26 ERA, 9.3 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, and 4.21
xFIP, with the ERA correcting to the mean. His swinging-strike rate, however,
dipped to 11%. But opposing hitters logged a below-average 74% contact rate against
him while their hard-hit rate also came in below average at 29%. It was a small
sample size that hinted at some potential if he could only reign in the control
a bit.
Steele spent the entirety of the 2022 season with the Cubs. Across 24 starts, he compiled a 3.18 ERA, 9.5 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, and 3.48 xFIP in 119 IP. The control was again his biggest enemy as that limited to him to under 5 IP per outing. Meanwhile, his swinging-strike rate dipped to 10% while the opposition’s contact rate climbed to 79%, which is slightly below average. To his credit, though, they mustered a hard-hit rate of just 26% against him, with a lot of batted balls being of the groundball variety (51%). Most encouragingly, he did his best work down the stretch, as Steele logged a 0.98 ERA, 11.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, and 2.82 xFIP in 36.2 IP after the All-Star break before a back issue ended his season early.
Although Steele missed a little time in 2023 because of a left forearm strain, he was able to pitch most of the season and he took a big step forward. Over 30 starts, he posted a 3.06 ERA, 9.1 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, and 3.32 xFIP in 173.1 IP. Thanks to his improved control and overall effectiveness, Steel was able to average over 5.2 IP per outing. In addition to drastically improving his control – his single biggest shortcoming throughout his professional career to date – he elevated his swinging-strike rate to almost 12% while opposing hitters posted a 78% contact rate against him. While his 88% z-contact% was a career high, Steele got hitters to chase (o-swing%) at a career-best 35% clip after that figure sat at just 29% in 2022. Again, the opposition logged a well below-average hard-it rate (28%) while Steele again induced lots of grounders (49%).
Encouragingly, Steele showed improvement as the season progressed. In 91.1 IP during the first half of the campaign, he recorded a 2.56 ERA, 8 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, and 3.86 xFIP. In 82 IP during the second half of the season, his ERA jumped to 3.62, but otherwise his numbers were the same or better – a nice 11.4 K/9, identical 1.9 BB/9, and a sharp 2.72 xFIP. The higher ERA can be, in part, attributed to an uptick in hard contact as his hard contact ate jumped from just 21% during the first half to almost 36% after the break; that latter figure was still slightly below the league average. But there was a marked increase in liners (up from 17% to nearly 27%) as opposing batters clearly had less trouble squaring up the ball against Steele.
So, what to make of Steele for 2024 and beyond? Well, the key will again be his control. Can he maintain something close to his much improved walk rate, or will he regress to a below-average control guy, like he was for most of his professional career before last season? ZiPS projected a 3.8 BB/9 last season and a 3.6 BB/9 in the immediate future, so he far outperformed those figures in 2023. Steele’s good – but not great – strikeout stuff caps his fantasy upside, so fantasy owners shouldn’t view him as more than a #2 arm and they would be wise to view him as more of a #3 because last season’s walk rate represented a major departure from what he previously did in his career. It was a fine season, but just one in a professional career that stretches back nearly decade now. He may be legit, but one would do well to not invest too much to find out.
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