After establishing himself as a #2-3 type SP for fantasy in 2019-2022, Lynn struggled in 2023 as his control regressed, his strikeout rate declined sharply after the All-Star break, and opposing hitters posted a career-high barrel rate against him.
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Lance Lynn entered the 2023 campaign on the heels of four straight seasons in which he was a strong fantasy contributor. He broke out in his age-32 season with the Rangers in 2019, recording a 3.67 ERA, 10.6 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, and 3.85 xFIP across 208.1 IP; the K/9, BB/9, and IP were all career bests, as were his 74% contact rate and 12.5% swinging-strike rate. Lynn’s hard-hit rate came in on the high side at 39%, but the reduced walk rate and career-high strikeout rate helped to mitigate the damage. A career-high 95-mph average velocity heater played some role in his increased strikeout rate and overall breakout.
Especially given his tendency to surrender hard contact, there were concerns about whether Lynn could replicate his success in 2020. In that pandemic-shortened campaign, he was almost – but not quite as effective – as he logged a 3.32 ERA, 9.5 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, and 4.34 xFIP over 84 IP. Although his average fastball velocity stayed above his career norm at 94 mph, his swinging-strike rate dipped to 11% and his contact rate climbed to 78%. Meanwhile, Lynn’s hard-hit rate dipped to a below-average 33%. It was, in short, a step back from 2020, but not a huge one as he still put up numbers worthy of a #2 or #3 fantasy SP.
Since the brevity of the 2020 season – and the late start – cast doubt on a lot of players’ performances that year, 2021 was the real litmus test for Lynn, and he rebounded a bit toward what he did in 2019. In 2021, Lynn recorded a 2.69 ERA, 10.1 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, and 3.82 xFIP in 157 IP with the White Sox; knee issues cost him a few starts that season. His swinging-strike rate ticked upward to 12% while his contact rate dipped a little to 76%. Opposing hitters, meanwhile, logged a hard-hit rate of just 27% against him that season. It’s worth noting that Lynn’s repertoire shifted starting in 2019, as he turned away from his sinker and toward his cutter. In 2018, he had deployed the sinker 33% of the time and the cutter just 11% of the time, but by 2021 his cutter use peaked at 31% while his sinker use came in at 20%. His sinker usage would come in under 13% in both 2022 and 2023 while his cutter came in at 29% and 23%, respectively, in those seasons.
Lynn was productive again in 2022, although knee surgery cost him a chunk of time in the early part of the season. Across 121.2 IP (21 starts), Lynn compiled a 3.99 ERA, 9.2 K/9, 1.4 BB/9, and 3.44 xFIP. The BB/9 was a new career-low while his xFIP was hist lowest since his first stint in the majors back in 2011. After it sat at 94 mph the previous two seasons, Lynn’s average fastball velocity came in at 93 in 2022, but he logged a career-high swinging-strike rate north of 13% while his contact rate came in at 75%. Opposing hitters made hard contact against him at a modest 33% rate. It appeared safe to say that Lynn was a reliable fantasy contributor after four consecutive seasons of #2-3 type fantasy production.
So, those who drafted him in 2023 had to be sorely disappointed with his production. Across 32 starts (183.2 IP), Lynn logged a 5.73 ERA, 9.4 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, and 4.50 xFIP. Sure, the significant gap between the ERA and xFIP points to a bloated 19% HR/FB and 68% strand rate in particular inflating his ERA, but there’s no denying that Lynn’s control faltered significant from where it had been the previous four campaigns. There was certainly some poor luck involved, as even though xFIP accounts for a 10% HR/FB, his career rate in that department is only 11%, and so that 19% seems pretty unfortunate. Meanwhile, his contact rate came in at just 74% while his swinging-strike rate remained at 13% and opposing batters made hard contact at a 32% rate against him.
A look at Statcast metrics, though, offers a clue into what went wrong (other than the control). For the first time in the Statcast era, his barrel rate came in north of 7% as it finished a shade over 10%. That tells us something that things like hard-hit rate don’t – that opposing hitters applied a combination of hard contact launch angle that did some damage against him. All season long, moreover, opposing hitters did their best work against Lynn when there were runners on base, as they logged just a 30% hard-hit rate against him with the bases empty as opposed to a 36% with runners on, while their HR/FB was 14% with bases empty and 27% with runners on.
Lynn’s splits for the first half and the second half of the 2023 season are also concerning. During the first half, he posted a 6.03 ERA, 11.1 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, and 3.78 xFIP in 103 IP. Those numbers alone seemingly made him a buy-low candidate in fantasy leagues. But then he went on to record a 5.36 ERA, 7.1 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, and 5.41 xFIP in 80.2 IP after the All-Star break as the floundering White Sox traded him to a contender in the Dodgers. Curiously, this crash happened despite his hard-hit rate dipping from 35% during the first half to under 29% during the second.
Especially since the 2024 campaign will be his age-37 season, there’s little reason to buy in on Lynn turning things around. Sure, he can be fantasy relevant again, but how his performance – especially his strikeout stuff – tailed off in 2023 and how opposing hitters were able to barrel up the ball all season long is concerning; his regression in the control department is also a red flag. Indeed, while the gap between his ERA and xFIP in 2023 might suggest that he simply ran into poor luck, there were some concerning developments. One might take a chance on him as a late-round lottery ticket, but it’s currently unclear where he will pitch in 2024 and if he will be able to regain his 2019-2022 form.
Photo credit: Keith Allison from Hanover, MD, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0>, via Wikimedia Commons
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