On the heels of a solid rookie campaign, Adley Rutschman cemented himself as a backstop in fantasy with a sophomore season in which he showed some growth.
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Switch-hitting backstop Adley Rutschman put together a fine sophomore campaign in 2023, hitting .277 with 20 dingers, 80 RBI, and 84 runs scored across 687 plate appearances, with an above-average wRC+ of 127. In many ways, he showed improvement from his fine rookie season and should be a top-five fantasy backstop for years to come.
Baltimore drafted Rutschman first overall in the 2019 amateur draft. That year, he wrapped up a storied collegiate career with Oregon State by earning PAC-12 Player of the Year honors, as well as the Golden Spikes and Dick Howser awards as the best player in college baseball. He made his professional debut later that summer, ascending three levels from Rookie ball to Single-A before the season ended. His largest sample size came in Low-A, where he batted .325 with a dinger, 15 RBI, and 11 runs scored across 92 PA, with a wRC+ of 166. He showed a strong approach at the plate and a knack for making contact by posting a 13% walk rate and a 17% strikeout rate.
In advance of the 2020 campaign, all three major prospect outlets listed Rutschman as a top-5 prospect in baseball. He would remain in the top five until he graduated from prospect status in 2022. Following the “lost” 2020 COVID season, Rutschman opened the 2021 campaign with Double-A Bowie. There, he impressed with a .271 average, 18 homers, 55 RBI, and 61 runs scored across 358 PA, with a stellar wRC+ of 145. He showed maturity at the dish by recording a walk rate (15%) that came in just below his strikeout rate (16%). Encouragingly, he translated his raw plus power into in-game production, as his .237 ISO was his highest to date in his professional career. Partway through the campaign, Rutschman was selected to the 2021 Futures Game.
With nothing left to prove in Double-A, Rutschman spent the remainder of the 2021 season with Triple-A Norfolk. He continued to rake, as he hit .312 with 5 dingers, 20 RBI, and 25 runs scored over 185 PA, with a wRC+ of 142. Although both figures regressed slightly, his strikeout rate (18%) and walk rate (13%) remained good for a guy getting his first taste of the uppermost level of the minors. He entered the 2022 campaign as the #2 prospect in baseball per MLB Pipeline and Baseball Prospectus, while Baseball America had him #1. Scouts raved about his advanced approach from both sides of the plate, his ability to make lots of contact, and his ability to consistently drive the ball.
Although Rutschman began the 2022 campaign in the minors as he recovered from a triceps strain, he did not stay there long before making his big-league debut in late May. Overall, it was a solid rookie season for the then-24 year-old as he posted a .254 average, 13 homers, 42 RBI, and 70 runs scored across 470 PA, with a wRC+ of 135. He drew a lot of walks (14%) while fanning at a reasonable 18% clip. As expected, Rutschman made a lot of contact (84%) and showed lots of patience (40.5% swing rate) and discipline (25% chase rate) at the dish. Although his hard-hit rate was subpar at just 31%, Rutschman did rip a lot of liners (23%) while splitting the balance between grounders and flyballs (38.5% each). His performance might not have earned him AL Rookie of the Year honors (those went to Seattle OF Julio Rodriguez), but it was nevertheless a nice debut.
So, Rutschman had something to build on in 2023, and he did with a .277 average, 20 dingers, 80 RBI, and 84 runs scored across 687 PA, with a RC+ of 127. His command of the dish improved as he posted a 13% walk rate and 15% strikeout rate. His contact rate ticked up to a very good 86% even as his swing rate remained fairly steady at 41% and he made lots of contact inside the zone (92% z-contact%) and outside of it (77% o-contact%). His batted-ball profile was very similar to what it was in his rookie season, as he logged a 30% hard hit rate, 23% liner rate, 34.5% flyball rate, and 42.5% groundball rate.
Encouragingly, Rutschman did show some improvement at the plate as the 2023 season progressed. In 383 PA before the All-Star break, he batted .273 with 12 homers, 39 RBI, and 44 runs scored, with a wRC+ of 124. In 304 PA after the break, he hit .282 with 8 dingers, 41 RBI, and 40 runs scored, with a wRC+ of 130. Although his walk rate dipped from 14.5% to 12%, Rutschman trimmed his strikeout rate from 15.5% to under 14% while elevating his hard-hit rate from 28% to 31%.
Overall, it was a fine second season in the majors for Rutschman. His approach at the plate and ability to make contact are as billed, although his raw power hasn’t yet fully translated to an impressive homer total. The subpar hard-hit rate has something to do with that, but there’s also the fact that despite possessing plus power, Rutschman is clearly trying to be more of a complete hitter rather than a slugger. A few more homers will likely come as he settles in as a big-leaguer and enters his prime, but even if not he's definitely a top-3 backstop in fantasy – and arguably #1 – thanks to his ability to hit for a plus average and solid power while providing quality runs and RBI totals as a top-of-the-order bat.
Photo credit: Maryland GovPics, CC BY 2.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0>, via Wikimedia Commons
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