The 2023 was a slight down year for Machado as his average, liner rate, and hard-hit rate were all down, but it seems likely that a combination of a slow start to the season, poor luck, and injury issues suppressed his production a bit.
It was, on the whole, a disappointing 2023 season for
Manny Machado. The 30 year-old dealt with a pair of injuries that caused him to
miss time and hampered his production when he was able to play. And the Padres,
of course, missed a postseason berth despite a star-studded lineup and a
rotation headed by a resurgent Blake Snell.
Although it came in below what Machado and his fantasy owners might expect, his season was far from a disaster from a fantasy standpoint. Across 601 PA, Machado hit .258 with 30 homers, 91 RBI, 75 runs scored, and 3 stolen bases (in 5 attempts) with a wRC+ of 114. His average was his lowest since 2019 while that wRC+ was his lowest since that same season, which was his first in a Padres uniform. The 3 stolen bags were his fewest in a campaign since 2016, when he swiped none. The power, though, was there, as he hit at least 30 homers for the seventh time in the last eight full seasons (excluding the abbreviated 2020 campaign, of course).
Meanwhile, Machado’s walk rate - 8% - and strikeout rate - 18% - were in line with his track record. The same can be said for his contact rate (78%) and swinging-strike rate (11%). His chase rate (o-swing%) was actually down a touch from the last couple of campaigns to 32%. One of the biggest departures from seasons past, though, was his hard-hit rate, which came in at just under 36%, his lowest in that department since 2016; his hard-hit rate was 38% or higher each season since 2016. After logging a line-drive rate north of 20% each season 2020-2022, that figure was down to only 15% last season. His groundball rate was north of 40% for the first time since 2019, too. Machado’s flyball rate was 45%, a career high; that does not pair well with a below-average hard-hit rate.
It's worth noting that Machado started the season slowly, as he hit just .231 with 5 homers, 19 RBI, 18 runs scored, and 2 steals across 170 PA before landing on the IL with a broken bone in his right hand in mid-May. With a wRC+ of just 81 to go with a sub-7% walk rate, high (for him) 21% strikeout rate, and 27% hard-hit rate, something was clearly off out of the gate this season. He was much better after he returned from the IL, batting .269 with 25 dingers, 72 RBI, 57 runs scored, and a steal across 431 PA, with a wRC+ of 127. His walk rate rebounded to 9% while his strikeout rate dipped to 17% and his hard-hit rate was in his normal range at 39%.
Even though Machado’s performance was stronger after he returned from the IL, one has to wonder how much injuries affected him thereafter. With his ability to make contact intact - his contact, swinging-strike, and strikeout rates were all typical - it is plausible that injury issues affected his ability to make quality contact. Machado, after all, dealt with tennis elbow over the last two seasons and he underwent surgery to address that issue immediately after the 2023 regular season came to an end. He also missed time early in the season with a hairline fracture in a metacarpal in his left hand. That injury was not fully healed when he returned from the IL - his first IL trip in 9 years - and reportedly caused some discomfort for some time after. And then toward season’s end Machado’s reoccurring tennis elbow issue flared up to the worst it had been. Even though he was forced to DH down the stretch, he still missed some games because of it.
And there is the possibility that there was simply some poor luck at play as well. For instance, Machado’s .268 BABIP was his lowest since 2019 and well below his .298 career average in that department. Meanwhile, his 36% hard-hit rate might have been low, but his barrel rate (10.5%), average exit velocity (91mph), and average launch angle (15) were all comparable to his career marks in those departments.
Ultimately, while it was a slight down year for Machado in 2023, it seems that a combination of a slow start, injuries, and poor luck suppressed his production a bit. That might help to discount him a bit on draft day in 2024, and that would make him a worthwhile investment as a bit of a rebound in the average department seems likely and he certainly has the ability to hit a few more homers in a full season of action.
Photo credit: Ryan Casey Aguinaldo, CC BY-SA 4.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons
Comments
Post a Comment