Volpe arrived in the majors as a highly touted prospect in 2023 and posted a 20-20 campaign, but disappointed with a low average and lots of strikeouts.
Anthony Volpe did not quite impress in his rookie
campaign in 2023. The 22 year-old batted just .209 with 21 homers, 60 RBI, 62
runs scored, and 24 steals (in 29 attempts) across 601 plate appearances, with
a subpar wRC+ of 84. While a 20-20 season is nice, the average and wRC+ were
disappointing for a player who was pretty hyped out of spring training thanks
to his prospect pedigree.
The Yankees selected Volpe 30th overall in the 2019 amateur draft out of a New Jersey high school. He’d committed to playing collegiate ball at Vanderbilt University after wrapping up a high school career that saw him named the state’s top player in 2019, but Volpe opted to sign with the Yankees. He made his professional debut that same summer, hitting .215 with 2 dingers, 11 RBI, 19 runs scored, and 6 steals (in 7 tries) across 150 PA, with a wRC+ of 102 as an 18 year-old in rookie ball. Although he drew a bunch of walks (15% BB%), he also fanned often (25% K%), but he didn’t swing and miss a lot (7.5% swinging-strike rate).
After the pandemic wiped out the 2020 competitive minor-league season, the Yankees assigned Volpe to Single-A Tampa to open the 2021 campaign. He raked at that level, producing a .302 average, 12 dingers, 49 RBI, 56 runs scored, and 21 stolen bases (in 26 chances) across 257 PA, with a stellar wRC+ of 186. In doing so, he walked (20%) more often than he fanned (17%) while ripping lots of liners (23.5%) and lofting lots of flyballs (47%). His swinging-strike rate stayed low at 7%.
Convinced that Volpe was ready for a bigger challenge, Yankees management promoted him to High-A Hudson Valley. There, he also impressed, with a .286 average, 12 dingers, 37 RBI, 57 runs scored, and 12 thefts (in 16 tries) across 256 PA, with a robust wRC+ of 154. While his walk rate dipped but remained above average at 10.5%, his strikeout rate did climb to 23% as his swinging-strike rate ticked upward to almost 10%. Still, Volpe ripped lots of liners (23.5%) while again lofting lots of flyballs (50%); a 28% infield fly rate was a bit concerning. While he was pretty pull-oriented in Single-A (53% pull rate, 25% center rate, 22% push rate), he evened things out a little in High-A (44% pull rate, 21.5% center rate), 34.5% opposite field).
2021 was Volpe’s breakout campaign. He never before appeared on any major top-100 prospect lists, but he did in advance of the 2022 season. MLB Pipeline had him the highest at #8 while Baseball Prospectus had him the lowest of the big three at #14 and Baseball America came in between them at #10. With an above-average potential hit tool and plus raw power as well as a knack for swiping bags despite his average speed, Volpe had showcased his ability to be an across-the-board contributor in his age-20 season.
Unsurprisingly, the Yankees challenged Volpe in 2022 by assigning him to Double-A Somerset to start his age-21 campaign. There, he played pretty well, recording a .251 average, 18 homers, 60 RBI, 71 runs scored, and 44 thefts (in 50 attempts) across 497 PA, with an above-average wRC+ of 122. He fanned at a reasonable 18% clip with a 9% swinging-strike rate while drawing walks at a health 11.5% rate. His batted balls, however, were skewed toward flyballs as he posted a 57% flyball rate, 15.5% liner rate, and 27.5% grounder rate, and he again leaned toward the pull side of things with a 47% pull rate, 24% center rate, and 29% push rate. And again, Volpe popped up a bunch of infield flies (23%).
Yankees management saw enough out of Volpe to promote hm to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre for the last few weeks of the 2022 season. There, he batted .236 with 3 dingers, 5 RBI, 15 runs scored, and 6 steals (in 7 opportunities) across 99 PA, with a below-average wRC+ of 91. His strikeout rate jumped to over 30% while his walk rate came in at a pretty average 8%. It was more of the same in terms of batted balls in that small sample size, with a 53% flyball rate, 15% liner rate, and 32% groundball rate. Although the strikeouts climbed, his swinging-strike rate remained steady at 9%.
On the heels of a season in which he was selected to the Futures Game, Volpe again ranked highly on major prospect lists during the 2023 preseason. He came in the highest for MLB Pipeline at #5, followed by #7 for Baseball Prospectus, and the lowest for Baseball America at #14. Although his hit tool hadn’t been excellent in the high minors, he had shown off his strong ability to hit for power and steal bases.
Volpe broke camp with the Yankees in 2023. The overall season line wasn’t all good, as he hit just .209 with 21 homers, 60 RBI, 62 runs scored, and 24 stolen bases (in 29 chances), with a wRC+ of just 84. His swinging-strike rate came in at a career-high 12.5% and he fanned at nearly a 28% clip. His walk rate was nearly average at under 9%. Contact was an issue as his contact rate came in at only 74% and he especially struggled to put the bat on the ball inside the zone (84% z-contact%). Volpe, moreover, generated hard contact at a below-average 34% clip while his barrel rate came in just under the “good” range a 9%. The good news is that his chase rate was average (32%) wile he ripped lots of liners (22%) while not going overboard with the flyballs (37%), leaving the groundball rate at 41%. A .259 BABIP does seem unlucky for a guy whose hard-hit rate wasn’t exactly bad and who hit a bunch of line-drives.
It does not appear that Volpe made significant progress during the season, either. In 339 PA before the All-Star break, he hit .216 with 13 homers, 33 RBI, 38 runs scored, and 16 steals in 18 attempts, with a wRC+ of 88. In 262 PA after the break, he batted just .200 with 8 dingers, 27 RBI, 24 runs scored, and 8 stolen bases in 11 attempts, with a wRC+ of 79. While he trimmed his strikeout rate from 29% to 26% and his liner rate rose 1%, his walk rate declined slightly from almost 9% to about 8.5% his hard-hit rate dropped from over 35% to under 32%. Volpe also lapsed into being more pull-oriented during the second half, as his pull rate climbed from 43.5% to 48.5% while his opposite-field rate suffered the most, slipping from over 23% to 20.5%.
While the season was not a resounding success, one must remember that Volpe was just 22 for his rookie season. It’s therefore too early to write him off. Even so, while the hype will certainly be down around him as the 2024 fantasy season approaches, there’s nothing in his profile to suggest that he will break out. There’s certainly the possibility that he takes a step forward in his sophomore campaign, but the low contact rate and below-average hard-hit rate will both have to improve in order for that to happen. He’s therefore a lottery ticket that should not be drafted at too high of a price.
Photo credit: Jeffrey Hyde, CC BY-SA 2.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0>, via Wikimedia Commons
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