Gifted with tremendous strikeout ability, Harrison showcased his tantalizing stuff in his MLB debut last season and appears poised to establish himself as a fantasy contributor in 2024 as he refines his control and command.
Kyle Harrison made his big-league debut in 2023 as a highly-touted prospect. The 21 year-old flashed his potential across seven MLB starts, compiling a 4.15 ERA, 9.1 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, and 5.01 xFIP in 34.2 IP. The highlight of his brief time in the majors was his first home start for the Giants, in which he fired 6.1 shutout IP, scattering 3 hits and 2 walks while racking up 11 punchouts against the Reds in late August. There were some rougher outings as he got touched up for some homers in particular, but overall, the southpaw hinted at future fantasy relevance.
The Giants took Harrison in the third round of the 2020 amateur draft out of a Bay Area high school, convincing him to sign – rather than play at UCLA – with a $2.5 million signing bonus. He made his professional debut in 2021 with Single-A San Jose. The results were a mixed bag, as he logged a 3.19 ERA, 14.3 K/9, 4.7 BB/9, and 4.06 xFIP in 23 starts (98.2 IP). While his control was clearly a work in progress, Harrison showed off his tantalizing ability to miss bats with a 17% swinging-strike rate. In the wake of that campaign, he broke the top 100 for all three major prospect outlets, with MLB Pipeline the most bullish on him with a ranking of #75 while Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America had him in the 90s.
Harrison began the 2022 season with High-A Eugene, where he absolutely dominated hitters. In seven starts, he posted an excellent 1.55 ERA, 18.3 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, and 1.70 xFIP across 29 IP. While the control wasn’t amazing, it was much improved even as Harrison’s swinging-strike rate came in at a robust 18%. Clearly ready for the next level, Giants management promoted Harrison to Double-A Richmond for the duration of the season. There, he recorded a 3.11 ERA, 13.6 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, and 3.32 xFIP across 18 starts (84 IP). While he regressed in every department, most of the numbers – aside from the BB/9 – were still good, and his swinging-strike rate remained healthy at 15%. It was at this level, though, that homers first became a bit of an issue, as Harrison’s HR/9 came in at 1.18 and his HR/FB was 16%; those aren’t quite alarming numbers, but it’s always concerning to see a pitcher show a combination of marginal control and a tendency to serve up big flies.
Harrison’s performance in 2022 got him recognized as a rising star. After being selected to his first Futures Game that year, he jumped up all of the major prospect outlets’ rankings in advance of the 2023 campaign. MLB Pipeline had him the highest at #18 while Baseball America had him the lowest at #38 and Baseball Reference put him at #20. He was clearly one of the top arms in the minors, but his control clearly remained a work in progress while the Giants limited the youngster’s workload. After he averaged just under 4.1 IP per outing in Single-A in 2021, that dipped slightly to barely 4 IP per outing in High-A before climbing to 4.2 IP per start in Double-A. Part of that might be attributed to his shaky control, but the organization was also gradually building him up after COVID limited competitive IP totals; he logged 98.2 total IP in 2021 while the total was 113 in 2022.
Now a top prospect, Harrison began the 2023 campaign on the cusp of the majors with Triple-A Sacramento. Again, things were a mixed bag as he posted a 4.66 ERA, 14.4 K/9, 6.6 BB/9, and 4.97 xFIP in 20 starts (65.2 IP). The regression in the control department was certainly concerning, and his swinging-strike rate dipped to 12%; that was still good, but not elite like his earlier figures at lower levels of the minors. Meanwhile, the control issues and continued workload management limited Harrison to just under 3.1 IP per start. Nevertheless, he was selected to his second Futures Game at midseason.
Then, the Giants called up their prized prospect in August. In two stints with the big club, he made seven starts in which he logged a 4.15 ERA, 9.1 K/9 2.9 BB/9, and 5.01 xFIP in 34.2 IP. With improved control, Giants management let him pitch deeper into games on average (almost IP per outing). Other than the stellar performance against the Reds, his body of work was not overly impressive, as he logged an 80% contact rate and 9.5% swinging-strike rate, with the longball being a bit of an issue (2.08 HR/9 and 15% HR/FB). On the other hand, he did limit opposing hitters to a subpar 32% hard-hit rate, and they didn’t make a ton of contact on pitches inside the zone (84% z-contact%). A 54% flyball rate might appear concerning on the surface, but the fact that he will make roughly half of his starts at spacious Oracle Park should help to mitigate the damage.
In August, MLB Pipeline ranked Harrison as the #20 overall prospect in baseball and the #2 pitcher in a bat-heavy list. That outlet particularly praised his plus-plus mid-90s heater, which he delivers from a low arm slot that adds to its effectiveness. Hitters have also generally struggled against his plus sweeping low-80s slider while he improved his changeup, which shows nice fade and sink. Although he possesses three plus offerings, Harrison is clearly working to harness his pure stuff with stronger command and control. His pure ability to miss bats in the strike zone gives him some margin for error, but whether he can pitch deeper into games partly hinges on whether he can be more efficient on the mound. Harrison’s shown that he can do it, it remains to be seen whether he can do so consistently.
But the talent is there and, especially with the SP
prospect pool a bit on the shallow side for fantasy in 2024, Harrison should be
firmly on fantasy owners’ radars. His strikeout ability is elite, and it’s very
possible that he breaks out in 2024 as he hones his craft as a pitcher.
Photo credit: Michelle Valenzuela, San Jose Giants
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