Thanks to a breakout campaign in 2023 in which he translated his excellent bat-to-ball skills and plus raw power into production Caminero vaulted into MLB Pipeline’s top 10 prospects and is an intriguing player for fantasy in 2024.
Junior Caminero rose quickly in the prospect rankings over the last year. At the start of the 2023 campaign, he was only in the top 100 for Baseball Prospectus. But he rode an excellent campaign – which included a selection to the Futures Game – to end up the #6 prospect in baseball per MLB Pipeline and the #11 prospect in baseball per Fangraphs. Indeed, Caminero’s age-19 campaign was a stellar one that saw him translate his plus-plus bat speed into production.
Cleveland signed Caminero out of the Dominican Republic back in 2019, but thanks in part to the 2020 COVID season, he did not play above complex-league ball until 2021. That year, Caminero enjoyed a solid professional debut in the Dominican Summer League, posting a .295 average, 9 homers, 33 RBI, 26 runs scored, and 2 stolen bases across 171 plate appearances, with a 16% strikeout rate, 12% walk rate, and 144 wRC+. His swinging-strike rate was, however, an astronomical 26%.
But Cleveland dealt Caminero to the Rays late in 2021 for right-handed pitcher Tobias Myers. He began the 2022 season in Rookie ball, where he hit .326 with 5 dingers, 31 RBI, 18 runs scored, and 7 steals in 154 PA. He again fanned infrequently (14%) and drew walks at a solid clip (10%) while logging a robust 147 wRC+. But Caminero’s swinging-strike rate remained concerningly high at 22%. Even so, Rays management promoted him to Single-A Charleston partway through his age-18 season, and he continued to produce with a .299 average, 6 homers, 20 RBI, 19 runs scored, and 5 stolen bases in just 117 PA. Even though his swinging-strike rate dropped to just 10%, his strikeout rate climbed to 19%. Meanwhile, Caminero’s walk rate dipped to 7% and his 137 wRC+ was pretty good.
Caminero showed enough promise in 2022 for Baseball Prospectus to rank him as their #99 prospect, but he didn’t crack the list for either MLB Pipeline or Baseball America. But 2023 turned out to be his breakout campaign, as he opened the season by hitting .356 with 11 homers, 32 RBI, 30 runs scored, and 2 steals in 159 PA with High-A Bowling Green, with an excellent wRC+ of 190. But approach and contact issues became evident as his walk rate tumbled to just 6% while his strikeout rate jumped to 25% thanks in part to a 14% swinging-strike rate.
To his credit, Caminero showed improvement across the board after the club promoted him to Double-A Montgomery. In 351 PA with that affiliate, he posted a .309 average, 20 homers, 62 RBI, 55 runs scored, and 3 steals, with a wRC+ of 140. He commanded the dish much better against stiffer competition in Double-A as he recorded a 17% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate, with a 12% swinging-strike rate that represented his second lowest at any stop in his professional career to date.
Because of injuries on the big-league roster, the Rays promoted Caminero to the majors in September. He saw limited action in his week of regular-season action with the big club, recording a .235 average, his first MLB homer, 7 RBI, and 4 runs scored with a wRC+ of 77 in a tiny sample size of 36 PA. He did not walk often (less than 6%) and fanned a bit (22%), but it’s tough to glean much from so few PA. For what it’s worth, his contact rate was below average at 73% as he struggled to make contact on pitches inside the zone (75% z-contact%). His plate discipline was not great as Caminero also chased often (40% o-swing%). Despite a below-average 35% hard-hit rate and average exit velocity of just 85mph, he did log a 12% barrel rate.
While it’s difficult to do much (if anything) with Caminero’s work in the majors because of the very limited sample size, his body of work for the entire season largely reflects what scouting reports have said about him. Those have indicated that he possesses plus power potential thanks to his plus-plus bat speed, and that was something that was absolutely on display as he blasted 32 homers across three levels. But despite his nice average in both High-A and Double-A, the low walk rate and high strikeout rate in the former highlight scouts’ concerns about his approach at the dish. The bottom line, though, is that Caminero just turned twenty and so it’s understandable that a player who was young for Double-A – let alone the majors – was still maturing as a hitter.
Ultimately, Caminero showed tremendous potential in his age-19 season, translating his excellent bat-to-ball ability and plus raw power to production. With some further refinement at the plate, he projects to be a fantasy contributor, perhaps as soon as 2024. Fantasy owners should therefore know his name.
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