After flashing his potential in an injury-shortened 2022 season in High-A, Keith put it all together to hit for average and power in the high minors in 2023.
Colt Keith is on the brink of making his big-league debut, and the bat-first prospect should therefore be known in fantasy circles. On the heels of a stellar 2023 season split between Double-A and Triple-A in which he hit .306 with 27 homers, 101 RBI, and 88 runs scored across 577 PA, Keith seems poised to be fantasy relevant sooner rather than later.
The Tigers selected Keith in the fifth round of the 2020 amateur draft out of a Mississippi high school. He had seemed likely to play college ball for Arizona State University, but he instead signed with Detroit and made his professional debut in 2021 with the 2020 minor-league season scrapped. Although the Tigers signed him at an over-slot amount, he was not a highly touted prospect. Keith appeared on none of the major top-100 prospect lists in 2021 or 2022.
As a 19 year-old Keith began his professional career with a 13-PA stint in Rookie ball in 2021 before spending a lot more time in Single-A. Across 181 PA with Lakeland, he hit .320 with a homer, 21 RBI, 32 runs scored, and 4 steals (in 5 attempts) with a wRC+ of 142. In doing so, he ripped lots of liners (32%) and used the whole field (35% pull, 28% center, 37% push), but his power output was low because he hit few flyballs (17%) and lots of grounders (51%). Keith showed a strong approach and patience at the dish as he walked at a 17% clip while fanning 21.5% of the time.
He wrapped up the 2021 season with a 76-PA sting with High-A West Michigan, where he batted just .162 with a dinger, 6 RBI, and 7 runs scored, with a wRC+ of 43. He struck out a ton (36%) but drew some walks (11%) at that level. It was a small sample size, but his liner rate evaporated to 12.5% while he hit a lot more flyballs (42.5%) and tempered the grounders (45%). While he scuffed in his first taste of High-A action, it was nevertheless a solid season overall for a 19 year-old in his first pro campaign.
Unsurprisingly, Keith began the 2022 season back with High-A West Michigan. This time, the 20 year-old excelled, hitting .301 with 9 dingers, 31 RBI, 38 runs scored, and 4 stolen bases (in 4 chances), with a wRC+ of 150 across 216 PA. He tempered his strikeout rate to 19% while drawing walks at a healthy 10% clip. Keith again drove the ball, this time putting together a more balanced 22% liner rate, 45% groundball rate, and 33% flyball rate. But misfortune struck in June, when he suffered a shoulder injury while diving back to the bag on a pickoff attempt. Keith missed the rest of the season because of the injury, his breakout campaign cut short. He returned to action during the Arizona Fall League, where he impressed by batting .344 with a 16:16 walk-strikeout ratio over 19 games. Baseball Prospectus recognized that his star was rising as he was that outlet’s #98 prospect during the 2023 preseason.
Keith picked up right where he left off as he opened the 2023 season with Double-A Erie. He batted .325 with 14 homers, 50 RBI, 43 runs scored, and 2 steals (in 3 opportunities) across 276 PA, with a robust wRC+ of 163. Keith’s strikeout rate did climb to 23% while his walk rate dipped to 9%, but neither figure was alarming as he ventured into the high minors at age 21. Encouragingly, Keith showed off his power stroke as he raised his liner rate to 27% and his flyball rate to 39% while logging a 34% groundball rate. He was also more pull-oriented at that level than lower ones, as he recorded a 45% pull rate, 27% center rate, and 28% opposite field rate. The strong performance in Double-A earned him a selection to the 2023 Futures Game.
But more success followed with Triple-A Toledo down the stretch. There, Keith batted .287 with 13 dingers, 51 RBI, 45 runs scored, and 1 theft (in 2 attempts) across 310 PA, with a wRC+ of 119. Encouragingly, he trimmed his strikeout rate to 19% and elevated his walk rate to 12% during his time in the highest level of the minors. Keith also carried over his batted ball profile, as he ripped 23% liners, lofted 43% flyballs, and hit just 34% worm-burners. And again, he pulled the ball often, with a 44% pull rate, 32% centerfield rate, and 28% push rate. Keith had, it seemed, unlocked his power while continuing to hit for a nice average.
When MLB Pipeline released their updated prospect rankings in August, Keith came in as the #25 prospect in all of baseball thanks to his excellent 2023 campaign. As that outlet notes, he’s a bat-first prospect who will likely end up at 3B because of a lack of necessary footspeed for 2B. His quick left-handed swing promises to allow him to hit for average, but he’s clearly begun to use the muscle that he’s added since he was drafted to hit for more power. That combination of hit tool and pop makes Keith an intriguing guy to watch for in fantasy in 2024.
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