After riding a lot of good luck to a stellar stat line in 2022, Javier’s fortunes turned in 2023 as more batted balls fell for hits and his strand rate crashed.
2023 was nothing short of a disappointing campaign for Cristian Javier and his fantasy owners. In a career-high 162 innings of work, the 26 year-old recorded a career-worst 4.56 ERA, career-low 8.8 K/9, a 3.4 BB/9 that represents his second-worst figure in that department since he reached the majors in 2020, and a 5.16 xFIP which was a career high. What went wrong?
For starters, expectations for Javier were probably a bit too high entering the season. After all, he recorded a stellar 2.54 ERA and 11.7 K/9 in 148.2 IP in 2022. But a 3.2 BB/9 was nothing amazing while his 3.53 xFIP – nearly a full run higher than his ERA – should have raised some eyebrows. As he had throughout his major-league career to that point, Javier enjoyed a high strand rate (84%) and low BABIP (.228). To his credit, he did a great job of missing bats (14.5% swinging-strike rate) and limiting opposing hitters to a well below-average contact rate of 72%; he especially did well at limiting contact on pitches inside the zone (80% z-contact%). They also did not muster much hard contact against Javier (just under 30%). That helped him to limit the number of homers he surrendered (1.03 HR/9) despite being a flyball-oriented pitcher (57% flyball rate).
So, Javier’s 2022 offered reasons to be skeptical as well as reasons to be cautious. He clearly could miss bats, but his control was average at best, and he benefited from a really low BABIP and high strand rate. Even modest correction in the BABIP department would likely decrease the strand rate, and that would be a problem given Javier’s tendency to issue free passes.
And that’s basically what happened in 2023. Javier’s BABIP for the campaign came in at .272, which is not at all high, but considerably higher than his previous season high of .234 in 2021. This in combination with regression in the control department caused his strand rate to crash. After not coming in below 82% in a season since he reached the majors in 2020, it came in at just 72% in 2023. His contact rate came in at 76%, which is below average but still north of the 71% he posted in 2021 and the 72% he logged in 2022. Opposing hitters did a better job of getting the bat on the ball inside the zone (84% z-contact%) and outside the zone (up to 65% in 2023 from under 60% in 2022). His hard-hit rate remained below average at 33%, but that was also he highest of his MLB career. Thanks in part to the uptick in hard contact, more of his flyballs (56% of batted balls) turned into homers (1.39 HR/9) even as his liner rate also increased (from 17% in 2022 to 19% in 2023).
It’s possible that a dip in velocity might have contributed to his woes. After averaging 94 mph in 2021 and 2022, his average fastball velocity came in at just under 93 mph in 2023. That’s certainly not a huge change, but an interesting one for a player in the prime of his career. And it could be an issue since Javier is essentially a two-pitch pitcher, throwing his heater 58% of the time and his slider 30% of the time while sprinkling in his curve (8%) and change (4%). A slower fastball in a fastball-heavy repertoire might have made him more hittable.
Did he show signs of pulling out of it over the course of the season? In a word, no. In 91.1 IP before the All-Star break, Javier recorded a 4.34 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, and 4.99 xFIP. In 70.2 IP after the break, he logged a 4.84 ERA, 9.8 K/9, 4.7 BB/9, and 5.39 xFIP. While the considerable rebound in the K/9 was good to see, everything else got worse, especially the walk rate. Meanwhile, opposing hitters made more hard contact against him during the second half (35%) compared to the first half (32%).
The road was especially unkind to Javier. While he logged a solid 3.71 ERA, 9.4 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, and 4.87 xFIP in 68 IP at home, he posted an ugly 5.17 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, and 5.38 xFIP in 94 starts away from Houston. This development is interesting since he was pretty even – if not slightly better on the road than at home in 2022; he recorded a 2.26 ERA, 11.4 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, and 3.62 xFIP in 75.2 IP at home against a 2.84 ERA, 12.1 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, and 3.42 xFIP in 73 IP on the road.
Ultimately, it appears that Javier ran into some bad luck last season after overachieving in 2020, 2021, and, especially, 2022. After his xFIP was nearly a full run higher than his ERA in each of his first three campaigns in the majors, it was over a half run lower in 2022. It might seem like a cop-out, but it simply seems like the “real” Javier is somewhere between his 2022 and 2023 stat lines. That would make him useful for fantasy, but not the budding star that he might have appeared to be as the 2022 campaign wrapped up.
Photo credit: CBS Sports.
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